U.S. Counter-terror Expert: Pakistan Could Collapse In Six Months

Well, it's not like I haven't been sounding the alarms here at Holger Awakens but man oh man, it is sobering to hear an expert on counter-terror and counter-insurgency with the kind of reputation that David Kilcullen say that the country of Pakistan could fall to the terrorists in as little as six months. Does anyone need a reminder that Pakistan has nuclear weapons? Think about it...nuclear weapons in the hands of al Qaeda and the Taliban. And you thought you were going to sleep tonight! Here's some of the details from Times of India:

Pakistan could collapse within six months in the face of the snowballing insurgency, a top expert on guerrilla warfare has said.

The dire prediction was made by David Kilcullen, a former adviser to top US military commander General David Petraeus. David Kilcullen is the best known practitioner of counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency operations and had advised Gen Petraeus on the counter-insurgency programme in Iraq. Few experts understand the nature of the insurgency in Af-Pak as well and he is now advising Petraeus in Afghanistan. Petraeus also echoed the same thought when he told a Congressional testimony last week that the insurgency could "take down" Pakistan, which is home to nuclear weapons and al-Qaida.

"We are running out of time to help Pakistan change its present course toward increasing economic and political instability, and even ultimate failure," said a recent report by a task force of the Atlantic Council that was led by former senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska and senator John Kerry of Massachusetts. The report, released in February, gave the Pakistani government 6 to 12 months before things went from bad to dangerous.

The issue is time - it is running out on this newer government of Pakistan and quite frankly, President Barack Obama is so damn wrapped up in a global strategy regarding the War in Afghanistan and the Pakistani problem that no one is minding the fort as far as tactical operations. Obama is flying about Pakistan at 50,000 feet trying to swoon the world with some sort of "vision" of la la land in this region and at the same time, we are witnessing daily suicide bombings inside of Pakistan and as I blogged about this very morning, the Talibana and al Qaeda are moving into the center of the country and getting closer to all of the major population centers.

I never thought we'd run into a crisis bigger than Iran's nukes but this one has to take the cake. Hopefully, someone in the Obama administration will learn how to ACT on something instead of imbibing in the usual paralysis by analysis. Time is running out and when Pakistan falls, this world will be on course for World War 3.

Pakistan could collapse within six months: US expert

The dire prediction was made by David Kilcullen, a former adviser to top US military commander General David Petraeus. David Kilcullen is the best known practitioner of counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency operations and had advised Gen Petraeus on the counter-insurgency programme in Iraq. Few experts understand the nature of the insurgency in Af-Pak as well and he is now advising Petraeus in Afghanistan. Petraeus also echoed the same thought when he told a Congressional testimony last week that the insurgency could "take down" Pakistan, which is home to nuclear weapons and al-Qaida. Kilcullen's comments come as Pakistan witnesses an unprecedented upswing in terror strikes and now some analysts in Pakistan and Washington are putting forward apocalyptic timetables for the country. "We are running out of time to help Pakistan change its present course toward increasing economic and political instability, and even ultimate failure," said a recent report by a task force of the Atlantic Council that was led by former senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska and senator John Kerry of Massachusetts. The report, released in February, gave the Pakistani government 6 to 12 months before things went from bad to dangerous. In an analysis piece, the New York Times cast doubts about the success of President Barack Obama's strategy offering Pakistan a partnership to defeat insurgency, as Pakistanis still consider India enemy number one. Officially, Islamabad welcomed Obama's strategy, with its hefty infusions of American money, hailing it as a "positive change", the paper said. But as the Obama administration tries to bring Pakistan to its side, large parts of the public, political class and the military have brushed off the plan, rebuffing the idea that the threat from al-Qaida and the Taliban, which Washington calls a common enemy, is so urgent, the newspaper added. Some, including Pak army chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and President Asif Ali Zardari may be coming around but for the military, at least, India remains priority No. 1, as it has for the 61 years of Pakistan's existence, the paper said. How to shift that focus in time for Pakistan to defeat a fast-expanding Islamic insurgency that threatens to devour the country is the challenge facing Admiral Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff, and Richard Holbrooke, the special envoy to the region, as they arrive in Pakistan for talks later this week, the Times emphasised. Strengthening Pakistan's weak civilian institutions, updating political parties rooted in feudal loyalties and recasting a military "fixated on yesterday's enemy", and stuck in the traditions of conventional warfare, are generational challenges, the paper said, warning that Pakistan may not have the luxury of the long term to meet them. Even before the insurgency has been fully engaged, however, many Pakistanis have concluded that reaching an accommodation with the militants is preferable to fighting them. Some, including mid-ranking soldiers, choose to see the militants not as the enemy, but as fellow Muslims who are deserving of greater sympathy than are the American aims, the paper added.