Russia strikes Syria after ‘Death Over Humiliation’ rebel battle

The story comes from Al Arabiya.

Russia strikes Syria after ‘Death Over Humiliation’ rebel battle

Russian jets pounded rebel-held areas of the Syrian city of Deraa on Tuesday for a second day in the first such intensive bombing campaign since Moscow's major intervention in Syria more than a year ago, rebels and witnesses said.

Rebel groups on Sunday stormed the heavily-garrisoned Manshiya district in a battle dubbed "Death rather than Humiliation" saying the campaign sought to obstruct any army attempts to capture a strategic border crossing with Jordan.

The army's control of the rebel held crossing and swatches of territory in the southern strip of the city would sever the rebel link between the eastern and west parts of the city.

The Syrian army said the "terrorists" had failed to make gains and its troops had inflicted many casualties.

State media said the armed insurgents showered civilian districts of the southern city with mortars, wrecking many homes.

The opposition fighters are drawn from both moderate Free Syrian Army groups and members of a newly formed alliance - Tahrir al Sham - spearheaded by a faction that was once al-Qaeda's official affiliate.

A rebel source said there were at least 30 Russian sorties on Tuesday, thwarting further rebel gains in the heavily defended enclave that had allowed them so far to secure significant parts of the Manshiya.

"When the regime began to lose control of some areas ... the Russian jets began their operations," said Ibrahim Abdullah, a senior rebel commander.

The fighting also spread across other parts of the city as rebels fired mortars on government controlled parts of the city. Ground-to-ground missiles were also deployed from army barracks to pound rebel held quarters of the city, residents said.

The battles inside the city are the most intense since an alliance of mainstream rebels, known as "The Southern Front" who are backed by Western and Arab foes of President Bashar al Assad launched an unsuccessful large scale military campaign to capture the whole city in 2015.

The province that borders both Israel and Jordan has escaped the devastation wreaked by Russia's aerial bombing of northern Syria after Moscow stepped up its military involvement in Syria in 2015.

The Syrian army has so far failed to recapture the border crossing, a once thriving passenger and commercial gateway with Jordan, despite repeated efforts.

"There is not a single day that passes without the regime trying to make advances," Salamah Aba Zaid, a resident in Deraa said.

At least half of the southern province is in the hands of Free Syrian Army rebels but groups affiliated with ISIS have a foothold in an area to the west of Deraa in the Wadi Yarmouk area near the Golan Heights.

Aid workers said jets hit a Western-funded field hospital in Deraa and raids killed at least seven members of one family in the border area, where many residents fled in the early days of the Syrian conflict.

The Washington-based International Rescue Committee, which supports the hospital that was targeted, said in a statement that four health workers were injured in the attack.

BREAKING: Russian Ambassador Assassinated In Yemen

The Russians are finding it tough diplomatic sledding in the Muslim countries.

The report comes from Express UK.

UPDATE:  Some are disputing this story.

I spoke with the duty officer at the Russian embassy in Yemen, he denied there had been any attack and said the ambassador is fine.

— Andrew Roth (@ARothWP) January 14, 2017

BREAKING: Russian ambassador 'assassinated after armed gunmen storm embassy in Yemen'

The Russian ambassador to Yemen has been shot and killed in Sanaa, according to reports coming from the Arab kingdom.

Vladimir Dedushkin was reportedly "keeping a close eye" in the war-torn country.

The diplomat was reportedly assassinated in the capital Sanaa.

The assassination was reported by Saudi Arabia's Barq news agency.

The Russian Embassy in the Yemen has reportedly said “no one’s been shot”, telling NBC no one had been attacked.



Mr Dedushkin was appointed by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin on August 16, 2013 and replace the outgoing Sergei Kozlov.

Mr Dedushkin said in November last year that Saudi Arabia was key to solving the crisis in the Yemen.

He said: "Saudi Arabia, in my view, has a decisive role in resolving this [Yemeni] conflict. The key to its settlement is in the hands of Riyadh.”

Yemen has been engulfed in a military conflict between the government and Shiite Houthi rebels, the country’s main opposition faction that forced the Yemeni government to resign last January.

The Rout Continues: Putin 26 Obama 0

Once again, Russia's leader inks a deal with another world leader while America's President lines up another putt.

The story comes from DAWN.

India, Russia agree missile sales, joint venture for helicopters

India and Russia on Saturday announced plans to set up a joint venture to build helicopters in India, which will also buy surface-to-air missile systems from its former Cold War ally, as the two tighten their military relationship.

The pacts were signed after summit talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in India's western resort state of Goa, where leaders from the BRICS group of emerging nations are meeting.

Indian military officials have said the plan is for the joint venture to build at least 200 Kamov helicopters required by the country's defence forces, and is part of Modi's drive to build a defence industrial base in the south Asian nation.

The S-400 surface-to-air missiles are meant to strengthen India's defences along its borders with China and Pakistan, Indian military officials have said.

Other heads of the BRICS club of leading emerging nations -- Brazil, China and South Africa -- were also gathering for this weekend's summit that is expected to focus on trade and counter-terrorism.

Putin is seeking to seal deals with India in an attempt to help revive Russia's recession-hit economy, following sliding oil prices and Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis.

Among the agreements expected are Moscow's delivery of its most advanced anti-aircraft defence system to India, a deal that has been in the pipeline for several years.

India, the world's top defence importer, is undergoing a $100-billion upgrade of its Soviet-era military hardware, as it looks to protect its borders from arch-rival Pakistan and an increasingly assertive China.

Modi and Putin will also focus on strengthening energy ties to meet India's growing thirst for fuel and electricity for its fast-growing economy.

Russia's biggest oil company Rosneft is expected to acquire India's Essar Oil in a multi-billion-dollar deal, according to local media reports, quoting officials involved in the agreement.

“The menu is vast,” India's ambassador to Russia, Pankaj Saran said at a briefing on the talks, without detailing the deals to be signed.

“It is more than a relationship, it is a partnership and very justifiably it has been described by the two leaders as both special and privileged, as well as of course strategic,” he said.

“It is very deep and very intense and it is poised to grow even further.”

Saran said he also expected them to discuss India's tensions with neighbour Pakistan, which spiked after last month's attack on the Uri army base that killed 19 soldiers.

Modi has sought to isolate Pakistan internationally since the attack that India blamed on Pakistan-based militants.

Subsequently, India claimed to have conducted "surgical strikes" against militants over the border in Pakistan. All such claims were rubbished by civil and military leadership in Pakistan.

“We have conveyed our views to the Russian side. We are confident that Russia will reflect upon our concerns,” Saran said.

But Putin is seen as unlikely to weigh into the dispute between the rivals, as Moscow also eyes closer defence ties with Islamabad. Russia and Pakistan carried out their first joint military exercise last month
China's Xi meets Modi.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed during talks late Saturday to work to resolve recent frustrations between the regional rivals, an official said.

Meeting on the eve of a BRICS summit of leading emerging nations, Modi and Xi agreed to further cooperate to combat “terrorism” and to work to reduce India's gaping trade deficit with China.

But Indian foreign ministry spokesman Vikas Swarup said there was no resolution on China's decision to block India's entry to a nuclear trade group.

India wants to become a member of the 48-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) to get better access to low-cost, clean energy which it says is important for its economic growth.

But China has so far declined to back India's request, saying it wants to wait until a consensus emerges at the group.

“Our broad concerns in the current state of the relationship were conveyed to the Chinese side,” Swarup said after the meeting -- their third this year -- in the Indian beach state of Goa.

“The intention was that both sides would narrow down the areas of difference since the commonalities far outweigh (the differences),” he said.

“Our expectation and hope is that China will see the logic of what we are saying.” There was no immediate comment from China's side.

New Delhi was also frustrated earlier this year when Beijing blocked its request to add a Pakistani militant group chief to a UN sanctions blacklist.

India accuses the Jaish-e-Mohammad rebel group of involvement in a deadly attack on an Indian airbase in January and more recently a raid on a army base that killed 19 soldiers.

Islamabad denies any involvement in either.

China enjoys close relations with India's archrival Pakistan and is pursuing a slew of infrastructure projects there.

Modi is keen to secure Chinese funding to fulfill his election pledge to overhaul India's crumbling railways and other infrastructure.

But the world's two most populous nations are jockeying for influence in Asia and their relationship is coloured by territorial disputes at both ends of the Himalayas.

They fought a border war in 1962 over the northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, parts of which Beijing claims as South Tibet.

Modi will also host a dinner for the BRICS leaders, ahead of the summit talks starting on Sunday at a plush beachside resort.

BRICS was formed in 2011 with the aim of using its growing economic and political influence to challenge Western hegemony.

The Russian Bear vs. The American Rainbow Unicorn

Yep.  We seem to be seeing a stalemate between Russia and America.  Perhaps it will become a stare down like JFK and Kruschev....Putin staring down the Boy Wonder and lord only knows what happens when the Unicorn baby king shits his pants and runs to Valerie Jarrett to kiss his owie.

The story comes from YNET News.

US suspends contacts with Russia on Syria, as Russia suspends plutonium treaty

Faced with a truce in Syria that never truly took hold, the US suspends talks with Russia regarding the deal; Russia also decides to air out its grievances against the US, suspending their plutonium disarmament treaty over disputes regarding Syria and Ukraine.

The US State Department said on Monday that the US is suspending bilateral contacts with Russia over Syria. Russia, for its part, also came out with a statement on Monday, saying that it is suspending a plutonium disarmament deal wth the US.

The US announcement came after last week's threat by Secretary of State John Kerry to suspend contacts amid new attacks on the city of Aleppo. The department said in its statement that Russia had not lived up to the terms of an agreement last month to restore the cease-fire and ensure sustained deliveries of humanitarian aid to besieged cities.

As part of the suspension, the US will be withdrawing personnel that it had dispatched to take part in the creation of a joint US-Russia center. That center was to have coordinated military cooperation and intelligence if the cease-fire had taken hold. The suspension will not affect communications between the two countries aimed at de-conflicting counter-terrorism operations in Syria.

An end to the Russia-US plutonium treaty

The US State Department's announcement came as Russian President Vladimir Putin suspended a treaty, as well, regarding the Kremlin's agreement with Washington to clean up weapons-grade plutonium, thus signaling that he is willing to use nuclear disarmament as a new bargaining chip in disputes with the United States over Ukraine and Syria.

Starting in the last years of the Cold War, Russia and the United States signed a series of accords to reduce the size of their nuclear arsenals, agreements that have so far survived intact despite a souring of US-Russian relations under Putin.

But on Monday, Putin issued a decree suspending an agreement, concluded in 2000, which bound the two sides to dispose of surplus plutonium originally intended for use in nuclear weapons.

The Kremlin said it was taking that action in response to unfriendly acts by Washington.

The plutonium accord is not the cornerstone of post Cold War US-Russia disarmament, and the practical implications from the suspension will be limited. But the suspension, and the linkage to disagreements on other issues, carries powerful symbolism.

"Putin's decree could signal that other nuclear disarmament cooperation deals between the United States and Russia are at risk of being undermined," Stratfor, a US-based consultancy, said in a commentary.

"The decision is likely an attempt to convey to Washington the price of cutting off dialogue on Syria and other issues."

The Long Reach of al-Baghdadi

The story comes from The Jerusalem Post.

Islamic State takes responsibility for Moscow attack

MOSCOW - Islamic State has claimed responsibility for an attack on a traffic police post outside Moscow on Wednesday in which both attackers were killed, calling it revenge for Russia's aerial bombing campaign in Syria.

The militant group made the claim via the Amaq news agency, which it regularly uses to issue statements, and released a video in which the purported attackers said they wanted to take revenge for Russia killing Muslims in the Middle East.

Russia has been bombing militants in Syria since September last year, part of a military campaign in support of President Bashar Assad.

Islamic State called on its members to carry out jihad or holy war in Russia in a YouTube video last month, after which the Kremlin said such threats would not affect its fight against international terrorism.

"We have taken the path of jihad on the orders of our Amir Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi," one of the purported attackers said on the video released by Amaq, speaking in a mix of Arabic and Russian.

The video named the attackers as Uthman Mardalov and Salim Israilov.

"We have called this operation 'revenge operation.' Revenge for you bombing our brothers, because you kill our brothers every day in Syria and Iraq. ... This will be the start of everything that will come to you."

Russian investigators said on Wednesday that two unidentified people armed with a firearm and two axes had attacked a traffic police post outside Moscow.

One of them was shot dead while attacking the post, while the other was killed when he tried to put up armed resistance, the Investigative Committee said in a statement.

Two police officers were wounded in the attack, one seriously.

Russia vs. Turkey - They Are Headed To War?

The story comes from Israel National News.

EU warns Russia and Turkey are headed for open war

EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini warned on Tuesday that Russia and Turkey are headed towards a "hot war," as she voiced concerns that the growing tensions between the two on the Syrian border risk spilling over into open warfare.

Speaking at a debate at the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee in Brussels, Mogherini said, "we are always referring to Syria as a proxy war among regional actors. This risks to become something bigger than this."

"I'm not thinking of a cold war. No, we risk a hot war among different actors than the one we always think of. Not necessarily Russia and the United States, but Russia and Turkey, could be," she said.

"As Europeans, we have a clear interest in trying to contain and scale down the tensions."

Mogherini's statements come in the wake of a ceasefire in Syria announced by the US and Russia which is to go into effect on Saturday. There remain huge doubts over the implementation of the deal, as it does not take into account Islamic State (ISIS) or Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate Nusra Front, which Russia could continue striking.

Her comments also come as US Secretary of State John Kerry warned Tuesday that if Russia and the Syrian regime are not serious about a political transition, he has a "Plan B" that likely would consist of a military escalation.

Russia has been conducting airstrikes on the ISIS and Nusra Front as well as Western-backed rebel forces since last September, to prop up the regime of its ally Bashar al-Assad. Iran has likewise been militarily involved to keep Assad in power.

Tensions between Russia and NATO-member Turkey have been high, ever since Turkey shot down a Russian Su-24 jet on the Syrian border on November 24, killing two Russian officers. In response, Russia issued vast sanctions on Turkey dealing serious financial damage.

Russia has also been spying on Turkey from the border, and has warned that if Turkey and Saudi Arabia follow through on their statements hinting at a ground offensive in Syria, it would cause a "world war."

Highlighting the growing military standoff between the two, Russia in December deployed its Mosvka missile cruiser off the coast of Syria. While the ship was said to be there to aid the airstrike campaign against Syrian rebels, its arsenal includes nuclear-capable Vulkan missiles designed to sink other warships - indicating the deployment was likely meant as a message to Turkey instead.

ISIS Strikes Russia

The reach of ISIS gets longer, indeed.


Not bad for a "jayvee" team.

The story comes from Al Arabiya.

ISIS claims deadly shooting in Russia’s Caucasus

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has claimed responsibility for a shooting at an ancient citadel in Russia’s volatile North Caucasus region of Dagestan that killed one and injured 11, the SITE Intelligence Group said.

“With the help of Allah, the warriors of the Khalifate were able to attack a group of Russian special service officers in the city of Derbent in southern Dagestan, killing one officer and injuring the others,” the monitoring organization SITE quoted ISIS as saying several hours after Wednesday’s deadly attack.

The World Teeters On the Ego of Putin?

I don't know about you folks but I'm not sleeping comfortably knowing that the world moving towards World War 3 rests on the decisions of a Soviet KGB mentality.

The story comes from Israel National News.

Kremlin says Putin 'fully mobilized' to tackle threat from Turkey

Russian President Vladimir Putin is fully mobilised to tackle what the Kremlin regards as an unprecedented threat from Turkey following the shooting down of one of its warplanes by a Turkish F-16, the Russian leader's spokesman said on Saturday.


In comments which underscore how angry the Kremlin still is over the incident, Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesman, called the behavior of
the Turkish air force "absolute madness" and said Ankara's subsequent handling of the crisis had reminded him of the "theater of the absurd." "Nobody has the right to traitorously shoot down a Russian plane from behind," Peskov told Russia's "News on Saturday" TV program, calling Turkish evidence purporting to show the Russian SU-24 jet had violated Turkish air space "cartoons".

To Russia, With Love (from ISIS)

For a religion of peace, there sure are a lot of body parts scattering the Earth.

The story comes from The Jerusalem Post.

Sound of explosion heard on Russian plane's black box, French TV reports

The sound of an explosion could be heard on the black boxes recovered from a Russian plane that crashed over Egypt's Sinai Peninsula on Saturday, according to an investigator who had access to them, French TV station France 2 said on its website on Friday.

According to the investigator, the explosion was not consistent with an engine failure, the report said.

Russia's At War, Obama's Trying To Find the Door

The article below talks about America in "disarray."  I'm not sure I would use that term.  I would call it more like a blindly led cluster fuck.

Oh well, as a young woman said back in 2008, she was excited that Barack Obama would pay her rent and pay for her car.  That's all that matters, baby.

Elections have consequences.  I heard that somewhere.

The story comes from Yahoo News.

Russian strikes again expose US disarray

New York (AFP) - Russia's dramatic entry Wednesday into the Syrian war put the United States on the back foot once again and left Washington struggling to regain the military and diplomatic initiative.

As US Secretary of State John Kerry was in New York trying to coordinate with his Kremlin opposite number Sergei Lavrov, a Russian officer contacted the US embassy in Baghdad.

His message was simple: Russian jets are about to launch air strikes in Syria, please stay out of their way.

Kerry quickly protested to Lavrov that this was not in the spirit of Moscow's promise to agree a "de-confliction" mechanism to ensure Russian flights do not interfere with US-led operations.

But the strikes were already underway, potentially altering the balance of power in Syria back in favor of Bashar al-Assad's regime, and Washington was looking at a fait accompli.

Lavrov's next move was to promise to bring a motion before the UN Security Council to coordinate "all forces standing up against Islamic State and other terrorist structures."

This would be a plain victory for Assad, who invited the Russians to join his battle to cling on to power, and a defeat for the United States, which has demanded he step down.

The attacks came despite President Barack Obama sitting down with Russia's Vladimir Putin on Monday at the United Nations for 90 minutes of what both camps called "business-like" talks.

One week ago, Kerry -- despite being in frequent contact with Lavrov -- told reporters that Russia's deployment of war planes was consistent with their only defending their own base.

And just hours before the strikes began he appeared on CNN to say that Russia's involvement could be an "opportunity" to persuade them to apply pressure on Assad to moderate his behavior.

After the strikes Kerry addressed the UN Security Council, but even here his message was mixed.

He said the United States would welcome the Russian action if it reflected a "genuine commitment" towards destroying the IS group and not the moderate opposition rebels threatening Assad.

Even as he spoke, a US defense official in Washington briefed journalists that: "We have not seen any strikes against ISIL, what we have seen is strikes against Syrian opposition."

Defense Secretary Ash Carter was cautious, saying: "It does appear they were in areas where there were probably not ISIL forces."

- Perils of inaction -

The US administration's domestic critics, such as hawkish Senator John McCain, leapt on the apparent confusion.

"This administration has confused our friends, encouraged our enemies, mistaken an excess of caution for prudence and replaced the risks of action with the perils of inaction," he said.

"Into the wreckage, into the wreckage of this administration's Middle East policy has now stepped Vladimir Putin."

Frustration is also mounting among Washington's allies in the Middle East, who support moves to defeat the Islamic State group, but also want to see Assad kicked out of office.

Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeiri, speaking to journalists in New York on Tuesday, was cautious not to criticize the United States alone, bemoaning a "lack of robust action by all of us."

But he was clear on why the Russians had found an opening to insert themselves into the conflict.

Putin Sends SA-22 Missile System To Syria

Russia has gone all in when it comes to the defense of Syria with rumored military bases there under construction and now word is leaked that the Russians have sent the SA-22 anti-aircraft missile system to Syria.  Now, I find it odd that an anti-AIRCRAFT system is on its way when it's obvious that the one missing link in ISIS' attack on Assad's forces is any kind of military aircraft but I guess that's a question for Vladimir Putin.

The story comes from The Jerusalem Post.

'Russia sending advanced air defenses to help Syria's Assad'


Moscow is sending an advanced anti-aircraft missile system to Syria, two Western officials and a Russian source said, as part of what the West believes is stepped-up military support for embattled President Bashar Assad.

The Western officials said the SA-22 system would be operated by Russian troops, rather than Syrians. It was on its way to Syria but had not yet arrived.

"This system is the advanced version used by Russia and it's meant to be operated by Russians in Syria," said one of the sources, a Western diplomat who is regularly briefed on US, Israeli and other intelligence assessments.

A US official separately confirmed the information.

The Russian source, who is close to the Russian navy, said the delivery would not be the first time Moscow had sent the SA-22 system, known as Pantsir-S1 in Russian, to Syria. It had been sent in 2013, the source said.

"There are plans now to send a new set," the source said, without detailing how far along the process was.

However, the Western diplomat said the version of the SA-22 on its way to Syria was newer than previous missile systems deployed there.

Syrian officials could not be reached for comment.

The United States has been leading a campaign of air strikes in Syrian air space for a year, joined by aircraft from European and regional allies including Britain, France, Jordan and Turkey. US forces operating in the area are concerned about the potential introduction of the weapon, the diplomat said.

US officials say they believe Moscow has been sending troops and equipment to Syria, although they say Russia's intentions are not clear.

Lebanese sources have told Reuters that Russian troops have begun participating in combat operations on behalf of the Assad government. Moscow has not commented on those reports.

Speaking at a news conference in Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Russia was sending military equipment to Syria to help the Assad government combat Islamic State fighters, and had sent experts to help train the Syrian army to use it.

However, the dispatch of advanced anti-aircraft missiles would appear to undermine that justification, since neither Islamic State nor any other Syrian rebel group possesses any aircraft.

Lavrov also said coordination was needed between Russia's military and the Pentagon to avoid "unintended incidents" around Syria. Russia was conducting pre-planned naval drills in the eastern Mediterranean, he said.

This year has seen momentum shift against Assad's government in Syria's 4-year-old civil war, which has killed 250,000 people and driven around half of Syria's 23 million people from their homes.

An ally of Damascus since the Cold War, Moscow maintains its only Mediterranean naval base at Tartous on the Syrian coast, and protecting it would be a strategic objective.

Recent months have also seen talk of a new role for outside forces in Syria, with NATO-member Turkey proposing the creation of a "safe zone" free from both Islamic State and government forces near its Syrian border.

Even if Russians operated the missiles and kept them out of the hands of the Syrian army, the arrival of such an advanced anti-aircraft system could also unsettle Israel, which in the past has bombed sophisticated arms it suspected were being handed to Assad's Lebanese guerrilla allies, Hezbollah.

"In the Middle East you never know what will happen. If the Russians end up handing it (SA-22) over to the Syrian military I don't think the Israelis would intervene but they would go bananas if they see it heading towards Hezbollah in Lebanon," the diplomatic source said.

An Israeli military spokesman declined to comment on the missile system. A senior Israeli defense official briefing reporters on Thursday said Israel was in contact with Moscow and would continue its policy of stopping advanced weapons reaching Hezbollah.

"We have open relations with the Russians who have come to save Assad in the civil war. Along with this, we will not allow our sovereignty to be compromised or the transfer of advanced or chemical weapons [to Hezbollah]. We are following the developments and keeping open channels with Moscow."

Ukraine forces kill up to five rebels, Putin warns of consequences

There are times in this world when how a guy dances on The Ellen Show doesn't mean shit.

The story comes from Times of India.

Ukraine forces kill up to five rebels, Putin warns of consequences


SLAVIANSK (Ukraine)/ST PETERSBURG (Russia): Ukrainian forces killed up to five pro-Moscow separatists in the east of the country, the interior ministry said on Thursday, as Russian President Vladimir Putin warned of "consequences" if Kiev used the army against its own people.

Interior ministry forces backed by the army removed three checkpoints manned by armed groups in the separatist-controlled town of Slaviansk, the ministry said in a statement.

"During the armed clash up to five terrorists were eliminated," it said, adding that one person had been wounded on the side of government forces.

Under an international accord signed in Geneva last week, illegal armed groups, including the rebels occupying about a dozen public buildings in the largely Russian-speaking east, are supposed to disarm and go home.

However, the Kremlin, which has deployed tens of thousands of troops on Ukraine's border, maintains it has the right to protect Russian-speakers if they come under threat, a reason it gave for annexing the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine last month.

In St Petersburg, Putin said that if the authorities in Kiev had used the army in eastern Ukraine, this would be a very serious crime against its own people.

"It is just a punitive operation and it will of course incur consequences for the people making these decisions, including (an effect) on our interstate relations," Putin said in a televised meeting with regional media.

The Geneva agreement, signed by Russia, the United States, Ukraine and the European Union, is already in trouble as Kiev launches its offensive to regain control of the east.

East and West have put the onus on each other to ensure the accord is implemented on the ground. U.S. President Barack Obama said earlier he was poised to impose new sanctions on Moscow if it did not act fast to end the armed stand-off.

Moscow also flexed its economic muscles in its worst stand-off with the West since the Cold War, with the government suggesting foreign firms which pull out of the country may not be able to get back in, and a source at Gazprom saying the gas exporter had slapped an additional $11.4 billion bill on Kiev.

Washington accuses Moscow of fomenting unrest in the east. Russia denies this and counters that Europe and the United States are supporting an illegitimate government in Kiev.

Obama said the Russian leadership was not abiding by the spirit or the letter of the Geneva agreement so far.

"We have prepared for the possibility of applying additional sanctions," he told a news conference on a visit to Japan. "There's always the possibility that Russia, tomorrow, or the next day, reverses its course and takes a different approach."

US troops arrive in Poland

So far, the United States and EU have imposed visa bans and asset freezes on a few Russians in protest at Moscow's annexation last month of Crimea from Ukraine.

In NATO member Poland, the first group of a contingent of around 600 U.S. soldiers arrived on Wednesday. They are part of an effort by Washington to reassure eastern European allies who are worried by the build-up of Russian forces near Ukraine's borders.

Earlier on Thursday, Kiev forces with five light armoured vehicles took control of a checkpoint north of Slaviansk after separatists appeared to abandon the position, Reuters journalists said from the scene.

The government said the city hall in another eastern town, Mariupol, which had been seized by separatists, was now back under central control. Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said the mayor was back in his office.

"In this instance there were no casualties ... The process of getting the situation back to normal in the city will continue," he said in a post on his Facebook page.

Kiev also reported a shootout overnight in another part of the east when a Ukrainian soldier was wounded, while pro-Russian separatists in Slaviansk were holding three journalists, including U.S. citizen Simon Ostrovsky.

Ukraine, a former Soviet republic, slid into unrest late last year when Moscow-backed President Viktor Yanukovich rejected a pact to build closer ties with Europe. Protesters took over central Kiev and he fled in February.

Days later, Russian troops seized control of Crimea. Moscow then annexed the region, saying it was protecting Russian residents, while the West called the action a land grab.

The focus has now shifted to eastern Ukraine, the industrial heartland and home to a large Russian-speaking community.

No way back?

With rhetoric building from the United States about the imposition of a new, tougher round of sanctions, Russia suggested on Thursday that Western firms which pulled out of the country may not be able to get back in.

"It is obvious that they won't return in the near future if they sever investment agreements with us, I mean there are consequences as well," Natural Resources Minister Sergei Donskoy told reporters.

"Russia is one of the most promising countries in terms of hydrocarbons production. If some contracts are severed here, then, colleagues, you lose a serious lump of your future pie," the minister added.

However, Western oil majors BP and Royal Dutch Shell were sticking with their projects in Russia, he noted.

Supplies of Russian gas to Europe are also, potentially, at risk from the crisis over Ukraine. Moscow has threatened to cut Kiev off unless it pays off its debts, and drastically raised this bill this week.

State-controlled Gazprom sent Ukrainian energy firm Naftogaz an additional bill on Wednesday of $11.4 billion, more than five times its previous claim, a source at the company said. This was in addition to the $2.2 billion that Naftogaz already owes for supplies in 2013 and 2014 so far.

Moscow nearly doubled the gas price for Ukraine from April but Kiev, which is in financial trouble, is refusing to pay.

If Moscow cuts off the flow to Kiev, this would have a knock-on effect on European customers further West, because many of the pipelines that deliver their gas run through Ukraine.

European and Ukrainian officials were to meet in Slovakia, which borders Ukraine, on Thursday to try to work out ways to mitigate the impact if Ukraine is cut off.

The options include reversing the usual east-west flow of the pipelines to Europe to pump gas back into Ukraine, but the volumes that could be supplied this way would be only a small fraction of the amount that Ukraine needs.

Unarmed mediators from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe are in eastern Ukraine trying to persuade pro-Russian gunmen to go home, in line with the Geneva accord.

Reuters reporters have not been able to establish that any Russian troops or special forces members are in the region, though Kiev and Western powers say they have growing evidence that Moscow has a covert presence.

Putin has described as "nonsense" allegations that Moscow has its forces in eastern Ukraine. It says the unrest is a spontaneous protest by local people who fear persecution from the government in Kiev which it says is illegitimate and has far-right links.

Putin’s Intentions Aren’t What Matter

From Family Security Matters.

Putin’s Intentions Aren’t What Matter


They're not hard to divine, but our strategic vision shouldn't depend on them anyway.

‘What matters is the intent. And we don't have a sense of that." That is what one of Washington's legion of anonymous "senior government officials" told the Wall Street Journal about the Russian military forces now massing on Ukraine's border - complemented, of course, by the tens of thousand more Russian troops stationed in what, until just a few days ago, used to be . . . Ukraine.

Clearly, our Beltway gurus have refined a bit of ancient wisdom: If you cannot remain silent and proceed to remove all doubt that you are a fool, at least remain anonymous.

Let us pretend for a moment that our senior official is right, and that Vladimir Putin's intent, rather than America's strategic perception, is "what matters." Is the Kremlin's intent really so shrouded in mystery that our $50-plus billion per year intelligence community doesn't quite "have a sense" of it?

Putin has just annexed the Crimean Peninsula with virtual impunity, after promising not to do it even as his forces were moving into place to do it, and despite Russia's prior guarantee of Ukraine's territorial security. His military invasion and seizure comes in the wake of his 2008 invasion of Georgia and seizure of Abkhazia and South Ossetia - which followed security assurances similar to those Russia had given Ukraine.

In connection with both invasions, the United States and Western Europe vowed that there would be serious consequences but meekly accepted Russia's aggression. In fact, during the Bush administration, after the United States publicly touted Ukraine and Georgia for NATO membership, the hand-wringing alliance stopped short of incorporating them.

Rest assured that Putin's bare-chested romps do not include navel-gazing over what the West's actions imply about its intent. He fully understood that NATO was unwilling to extend to these former Soviet satellites its security guarantee - viz., that an attack on any NATO country is considered an attack on all NATO countries that must be repelled as such. Coupled with Europe's willingness - actually, anxiousness - to increase economic intercourse with and energy dependence on Russia even after the Georgian invasion, Putin grasped that he had a green light to indulge his revanchist ambitions.

Against this backdrop of recent history, Russia now has upwards of 50,000 troops in position for an invasion of heavily Russian sections of Eastern Ukraine. The Kremlin claims to be engaged in military exercises, under circumstances where there are many thousand more troops than training exercises would justify and where the "we're just doing exercises" pretext is shopworn. Russia's claim that it has no hostile designs on Eastern Ukraine echoes its false assurances regarding Crimea and Georgia. Moreover, as the Wall Street Journal report elaborates, the gathering Russian forces are making active efforts to conceal their positions and their equipment along the Ukrainian border. They are establishing supply lines that would be essential to an invasion and prolonged occupation.

So what do you suppose Putin's intent might be? Sure is tough to get a sense of it, no?

Willful blindness to easily acquirable knowledge is standard operating procedure in Washington. When accountable national-security officials learn that important American interests are being threatened, the public expects them to take decisive action. Decisive action is politically risky. Often, politicians would rather not know.

When information is too available and too pellucid for them to feign ignorance, epistemological uncertainty about its significance is always a convenient fallback position. Let's say a cop on the beat in a high-crime area in the dead of a summer night sees a man in a ski mask, screwdriver in hand, eying an apartment window. He would not be a cop for long if he turned his back because, after all, you never know what the masked man's intent might be. But he would still qualify for a front-office job at the National Intelligence Directorate - perhaps analyzing "largely secular" organizations like the Muslim Brotherhood.

All that said, though, intent is not what matters in international affairs. The key is to have a strategic vision of the real world and our interests. That is the solid foundation for American foreign policy. If it were in place, there would be far fewer occasions to wonder about our adversaries' intent. That problem is solved by having decided they are adversaries until proven otherwise; by treating them in that manner in every interaction; and by making clear to them that the wages of crossing us will be real and lasting. (Maybe someone could tell President Obama that Putin has joined the Tea Party - might do the trick.)

It is all well and good for House majority leader Eric Cantor, among other Republican leaders, to chide the president for designing policy around the Putin he hopefully imagines rather than the real Putin. This, however, is neither a new problem nor one that's unique to Obama.

As I ruefully detailed back in 2008, the Bush administration delusionally regarded Russia as a "strategic partner," notwithstanding Putin's quite calculating strategic cooperation with Iran (you know, the "Death to America" guys) on nuclear-power development and ballistic-missile technology. Then, as I observed in late 2010, two years after the Georgia invasion, with Putin defiantly occupying Abkhazia and South Ossetia, GOP support for Obama's wayward New START treaty with Russia was mustered by such foreign-engagement masterminds as former secretary of state Condoleezza Rice (architect of Bush's strategic partnership with Russia) and Senator Richard Lugar (who in 2006 had partnered with then-senator Obama to disarm Ukraine). The treaty would not have been ratified without the familiar machinations of Republican senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham - then on a respite between supporting Qaddafi against jihadists and supporting jihadists against Qaddafi. McCain and Graham strongly urged their colleagues to take up consideration of New START . . . then voted against it once its approval was assured.

Russia is on the march because it was treated like a friend while it acted like an enemy. As usual, the bipartisan transnational-progressive clerisy convinced itself that our adversaries, who thrive on instability, have an abiding interest in international stability - that they are best seen as trusted "partners" in the pursuit of American objectives rather than aggressors pursuing their own very different objectives.

As Putin menaces Ukraine, Obama prattles about international law. Even if this president's sudden interest in faithful adherence to law could be taken seriously, the international arena is not a "community" sharing common legal norms and enforcement mechanisms. Aggressors are not presumed innocent such that we must sit idle until their intent can be proved beyond a reasonable doubt. They are presumed hostile until they prove otherwise.

Today's Russia is no Soviet Union, at least not yet. But it will grow stronger, and its behavior more provocative, until we devise economic, diplomatic, and defense policy on the assumption that it is an enemy. The longer we wait to "reset" in accordance with reality, the more painful the reckoning will be.

A Tale of Two Centuries

From Family Security Matters.

A Tale of Two Centuries


It's unfair to expect Obama to do anything about Ukraine when his biggest priority is convincing twenty-somethings to buy worthless health insurance policies by appearing on online comedy shows and deploying his March Madness bracket.

The Obama Twitter feeds are filled with desperate pleas to buy ObamaCare; harnessing every memeworthy bit of internet detritus from cat pictures to twerking in the hopes of convincing healthy young people who don't want health insurance to buy it anyway.

On March 17th, Obama's Twitter linked to a statement on Ukraine and then it was back to "There's only 14 days to get coverage." It's currently down to 12 days. It's like holiday shopping, but with a $6,000 deductible.

Senator Chris Murphy (D-Conn) went to Ukraine, called Russia's invasion a "weak" and "panicky" reaction to Obama's strength, and then announced plans to speak about the "Between Two Ferns Effect". The "effect" is the sheer awesomeness of Obama's appearance on an internet comedy show to promote ObamaCare.

It's that kind of 21st century thinking that sets Barack apart from Vladimir's quaint 19th century hunger for territory. While a former KGB agent wastes time conquering countries, a former community organizer focuses on selling nationalized health care to young invincibles through a website that works about as well as a Soviet Yugo.

Putin's power rests on a shaky energy industry, but Obama's power rests on ObamaCare. Kerry scoffed at Russia's invasion as so 19th century. In the 21st century, power doesn't come from land or armies, but from online popularity. Online popularity took a radical Illinois State Senator and turned him into a world leader. Online popularity is the WMD that the State Senator is convinced will save ObamaCare.

Putin has a weakness for staged photo ops circulated over the internet, but they are more like Kaiser Wilhelm II chopping pre-cut logs while yearning for the return of the German monarchy than Obama's self-deprecating attempts to be all things to all people. The Russian government has no use for irony; it leaves such things to the opposition. In the post-modern America, leaders claim absolute power while making self-deprecating jokes. They discard the rule of law and then hawk nationalized healthcare in infomercials for an effect more surreal than a crony capitalist KGB man with a law degree taking off his tailored suit and $500,000 Tourbograph watch to play Great White Hunter.

Putin poses on horseback, in a wetsuit, in a hang glider, finding ancient urns in the sea or shooting tigers. Obama poses playing with a lightsaber, makes an unimpressed face with McKayla Maroney and unveils his March Madness picks. The Russian dictator strikes heroic poses straight out of the 19th century, while Obama struggles to hold the unstable attention span of 21st century millennials . Obama's poses are no less absurd than Putin's, but they are self-consciously absurd. Putin is playing the part of the great leader, while Obama disguises the enormous power he wields by acting more like Ellen; a talk show host endlessly cracking jokes and posing for goofy selfies.

It's easy to laugh at Putin's posturing, but Obama's public image is no less cynical. Both men are instinctive totalitarians with backgrounds in Marxism and little respect for the rule of law. Obama is a creature of a more modern media age catering to a demographic which prides itself on skepticism, at least where Western religion or nationalism are concerned, while being as gullible as any of the old ladies clutching red portraits of Stalin in Simferopol when it comes to the progressive agenda.

The difference between the two centuries and the two men is a matter of misdirection. Putin enhances the public perception of his power while Obama downplays it. Putin's base likes their red meat raw while Obama's base prefers a soy burger that looks and tastes exactly like meat so that they can have an ersatz imitation of the real thing that preserves their moral superiority. Putin's base values strength while Obama's base waters down their abuses of power with the appearance of cleverness and humor.

Obama delivers Putin's totalitarianism in soy form. It looks a lot like a burger, but it's really just an Asian legume. It looks a lot like tyranny, but it falls apart when confronting an actual tyrant. It's easy to raid guitar factories, lock up anti-Muslim filmmakers and send the IRS after political opponents, but that sort of pettiness is an ordinary day in Russia which just banned lacy underwear. The EPA, USDA and even the IRS are no match for Russian teenagers packing those dreaded assault rifles.

Obama's Mean Girls strategy for Putin is to make him unpopular. The various White House responses talk of isolating Russia. But Obama needs Russia to isolate Iran. He needs China to isolate Russia which will become inconvenient when China starts a shooting war with Japan. Obama can't isolate everyone. He can't isolate anyone. He has just now gotten around to kicking Syria out of the US after Russia and China prevented him from isolating Assad.

The Hills and Big Brother are poor models for international diplomacy. While Obama is figuring out how to convince Russia to stop talking to Iran and China to stop talking to Russia and everyone to stop talking to North Korea, these countries are moving their own agendas forward by doing things, instead of by tweeting them.

The social network strategy for Russia will work about as well as it did for Syria or for ObamaCare. In the postmodern 21st century, Twitter mobs can destroy the lives of individuals who make racist jokes, but they're no match for a conquering army. The Facebook nerds who steal elections, the Twitter social justice activists who spread privilege checking hashtags, the Tumblr diarists who churn out memes about microaggressions are as useless as their leader.

Progressive nerd bullies are as vicious online as they are impotent in real life. Obama's plan to make Putin unpopular while he gobbles up countries isn't a brilliant show of strength; it's a passive aggressive display from the cyclist-in-chief who excels at putdowns, not at takedowns.

The left has been getting its own way for so long that it has forgotten that the Colbert Report isn't real life, that snide remarks are no substitute for strength and that there are some men who are not afraid of being mocked by Saturday Night Live.

The 21st century post-modern power that the left puts so much into isn't an evolution, but a devolution. It's a collapsing civilization's response to its own decline. The ironic poses of our post-modern dictators are a distancing effect for a culture that suspects sincerity but takes humorous denials at face value. The more indirect the path between motive, assertion and action, the more self-aware the modern totalitarian politician must be. And it is this show of self-awareness that is prized above all else including integrity, ethics and truth.

Romney was so despised because he was monotone, a black and white figure who said what he meant instead of layering it through infinite levels of irony. The age of the counterculture would have considered him a square. The grandchildren of that age saw him as equally unhip for his sincerity. The post-modern politician is serious by being unserious, he navigates deftly between jokes, personal narrative and the core message. He sells a brand, rather than a policy. An identity rather than an idea.

21st century branding is obsessed with the deft positioning of images and causes, but its practitioners are unable to apply the deft hijacking of memes to sell health insurance to the equally deft maneuverings of armored vehicles and armed men in Crimea. They have become social media shut ins, expert at navigating the narrow bubbles of online and offline elitist social networks, but blink in confusion when they are pulled away from the computer long enough to see lines of troops moving into another country.

The men and women in charge of our countries understand how to smear and to demean, how to build Twitter followers and tell self-deprecating jokes. They can't build a website, but they consider actually making things beneath them. They are critics of the culture, social justice commentators, public intellectuals who can make anything into propaganda, but can't hammer a nail into a board.


They treat every problem like an online debate. They assemble allies, pile on enemies, troll the opposition and then declare victory. But winning a debate doesn't make the tanks go away.

"The world has seen through Russia's actions and has rejected the flawed logic behind those actions," Joe Biden declared. That might be a winning line in a Facebook debate, but it doesn't do anything to move Russian forces out of Ukrainian cities.

Accusations of flawed logic, spell checks and saying, "You said literally when you meant figuratively" will not move a single piece of Russian armor out of Crimea.

Making Putin unpopular, a task already accomplished when he joined the organizers of the St. Patrick's Day parade and the Boy Scouts in refusing to jump on the gay rights bandwagon, is an impotent display of postmodern soft power. Meanwhile the failure to stop Putin will make him more popular in the places that truly matter, where no one buys ObamaCare and no one is impressed by accusations of flawed logic.

Putin has demonstrated to Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Syria and China that America is weak, that it has become a nation living inside its own imagination, and he has shown Eastern Europe and the rest of the world that America is a bad friend while Russia is a dangerous enemy.

Obama's 21st century world is an imaginary place whose virtual territories depend on real infrastructure and energy. Underneath the glittering cities in the sky where everyone is part of a virtual community are the real roads and cities of stone and steel that can be taken by anyone with enough men and determination to capture them.

The Facebook strategy can sell health insurance, but it can't make ObamaCare financially viable. It can sneer at Putin, but it can't do anything to change the real world equations. The left has confused the overlay, its commentaries and memes, for reality. It has come to believe that The Daily Show is real news, that Obama is a real leader and that a Twitter hashtag is real power.

The Russian soldiers in Crimea are a reminder that, as Mao said, "Every Communist must grasp the truth: Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun." The Western left has forgotten the simple truth that no Eastern leftist has ever become decadent enough to forget. Power does not come from the "Two Ferns Effect" of self-deprecating irony, but from the Russian guns in Crimea.