A ceasefire deal is being worked by the U.S. , Germany, Jordan and Israel but spearheaded by the Egyptians who are also in charge of communicating terms with Hamas. I am one of the last ones to wish any kind of ceasefire, because I simply want Hamas destroyed by Israel but as ceasefires go, this one doesn't sound half bad. I will explain below these experts from the story at DEBKA why I am not raising holy hell with these deliberations:
1. The ceasefire lines will be drawn at the battle lines when the ceasefire is called - this means that the Israelis will have successfully blocked off a huge portion of northern Gaza that would give southern Israel some good relief from rocket attacks.
2. Egyptian and Jordanian units, NOT U.N. units will be in place in Gaza to monitor the ceasefire. You might say that the Egyptians and Jordanians would certainly allow Hamas to rearm but we can't forget that both of these countries do NOT want Hamas to get any stronger - and at the same time, Egypt knows that if all falls apart, they will probably see a huge exodus attempted into Egypt by the palis.
Now, why am I even considering this plan? Why don't I want the IDF to simply continue? Well, I've come to the conclusion that in order for Israel to make this operation a total success, they would have to do one or both of two things:
1. Israel is finding that it is simply impossible to completely root Hamas out of Gaza without inflicting HUGE civilian deaths. Israel, at the moment, does not have the stomach to see 10,000 to 30,000 civilian deaths pinned on their operation.
2. Israeli troops would have to stay for a very long time in Gaza - in order to keep Hamas from reappearing and rearming, Israel would, in essence, have to occupy Gaza for probably a minimum of two years. The world is having a huge problem with this operation alone...imagine what would happen if Israel would announce an occupation? Israel's politicians are not ready to jeopardize some ally relationships with this...especially with the new American President coming into office who they do not wish to give a reason to side with the palis.
Do not misunderstand me. I don't advocate this...if I were in charge in Israel I would tell the world that we are going into Gaza City full bore and that due to Hamas' integration with civilians, there will be major civilian deaths and injuries. I would then have all inhabitants of the urban areas of Gaza warned of the impending operation and give them a week to leave the cities. They I would turn those cities and Hamas into dust. That is what I would do, but the Israelis will not.
DEBKAfile's Washington sources disclose that Washington, Cairo, Amman and Jerusalem are hammering out the lines of a ceasefire deal that will be contingent on the state of combat in the Gaza Strip. Jerusalem accepts the proposition that the ceasefire lines will follow the lines of combat reached in the Gaza Strip in the fighting between Israel and Hamas. Egyptian and Jordanian forces will then enter the Gaza Strip.The points I like about this plan are this:
Alongside the overt diplomatic drive for a ceasefire, Washington is quietly moving ahead on a package in conjunction with Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt – which is managing the Hamas track – and German chancellor Angela Merkel. Israel will hold the lines established on the day the ceasefire went into effect for a two-three month trial period. Egyptian and Jordanian units will remain in the enclave until a pre-set date. An international mechanism will prevent Hamas from rearming.
1. The ceasefire lines will be drawn at the battle lines when the ceasefire is called - this means that the Israelis will have successfully blocked off a huge portion of northern Gaza that would give southern Israel some good relief from rocket attacks.
2. Egyptian and Jordanian units, NOT U.N. units will be in place in Gaza to monitor the ceasefire. You might say that the Egyptians and Jordanians would certainly allow Hamas to rearm but we can't forget that both of these countries do NOT want Hamas to get any stronger - and at the same time, Egypt knows that if all falls apart, they will probably see a huge exodus attempted into Egypt by the palis.
Now, why am I even considering this plan? Why don't I want the IDF to simply continue? Well, I've come to the conclusion that in order for Israel to make this operation a total success, they would have to do one or both of two things:
1. Israel is finding that it is simply impossible to completely root Hamas out of Gaza without inflicting HUGE civilian deaths. Israel, at the moment, does not have the stomach to see 10,000 to 30,000 civilian deaths pinned on their operation.
2. Israeli troops would have to stay for a very long time in Gaza - in order to keep Hamas from reappearing and rearming, Israel would, in essence, have to occupy Gaza for probably a minimum of two years. The world is having a huge problem with this operation alone...imagine what would happen if Israel would announce an occupation? Israel's politicians are not ready to jeopardize some ally relationships with this...especially with the new American President coming into office who they do not wish to give a reason to side with the palis.
Do not misunderstand me. I don't advocate this...if I were in charge in Israel I would tell the world that we are going into Gaza City full bore and that due to Hamas' integration with civilians, there will be major civilian deaths and injuries. I would then have all inhabitants of the urban areas of Gaza warned of the impending operation and give them a week to leave the cities. They I would turn those cities and Hamas into dust. That is what I would do, but the Israelis will not.
US, Egypt, Jordan, Germany and Israel are working together on Gaza ceasefire package
DEBKAfile's Washington sources disclose that Washington, Cairo, Amman and Jerusalem are hammering out the lines of a ceasefire deal that will be contingent on the state of combat in the Gaza Strip. Jerusalem accepts the proposition that the ceasefire lines will follow the lines of combat reached in the Gaza Strip in the fighting between Israel and Hamas. Egyptian and Jordanian forces will then enter the Gaza Strip.
Prime minister Ehud Olmert told visiting European Union ministers Monday, Jan. 5, that diplomacy is in progress to find an "international blanket for damping down the blaze in Gaza." He did not elaborate, but, according to our sources in Washington, he was referring to Egypt as the prime mover in a ceasefire solution – not the US.
Alongside the overt diplomatic drive for a ceasefire, Washington is quietly moving ahead on a package in conjunction with Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt – which is managing the Hamas track – and German chancellor Angela Merkel. Israel will hold the lines established on the day the ceasefire went into effect for a two-three month trial period. Egyptian and Jordanian units will remain in the enclave until a pre-set date. An international mechanism will prevent Hamas from rearming.
Egyptian intelligence minister Gen. Omar Suleiman outlined this deal for the Hamas delegation, headed by operations chief, Imad Al Alami, which arrived in Cairo Monday night, after finally agreeing to discuss a truce. It was clear to both sides that he was dictating honorable terms for a Hamas capitulation, as Israeli forces entered the third and most dangerous phase of their Gaza offensive, the entry into Gaza's densely built-up areas.
Tuesday saw heavy Israeli-Hamas street battles in Gaza City after a night of heavy Israeli aerial and naval bombardment. Israel forces engaged Hamas in Khan Younis in the south and hit the southern arms smuggling tunnels of the Philadelphi route and Rafah by air and land.
Hamas attacked the Israeli troops holding the Netzarim belt cutting Gaza City off from the south at Deir al Balakh.
This phase of Israel's Operation Cast Lead follows Phase 1, the heavy aerial bombardment of Hamas military and government infrastructure, and Phase 2, the ground, tank and artillery incursion on Jan. 1, which split the 360-sq km Gaza Strip into three segments.
The outcome of the toughest challenge of the ongoing Phase 3 for flushing out Hamas operatives mingling with urban populations and reducing their rocket-firing capabilities will determine the ceasefire lines for ending the conflict. Meanwhile Hamas was still able to keep up its constant rocket and missile fire by Tuesday afternoon, Jan. 6.
Our diplomatic sources report that the German chancellor's involvement in the US initiative has left French president Nicolas Sarkozy and his 48-hour humanitarian ceasefire proposal more or less standing. In any case, it was rejected by Israel except for his proposal to open a corridor for wounded Palestinians to leave the Gaza Strip for treatment.
The next UN Security Council meeting on the Gaza crisis is also likely to break up for a second time without accord on a ceasefire resolution.
Sarkozy continues his whirlwind Middle East tour in Damascus and Beirut Tuesday.
1 comment:
SDben5,
I agree with you that this isn't by any means an ideal situation but the possible alternatives, I think, would be worse...like NO monitoring at all which of course would land Israel in the same exact situation as today OR the same bullshit scenario that played out in southern Lebanon after the 2006 war where U.N. monitors were put in and stood idly by as Hezbollah rearmed.
It's not an easy situation and I'm not even quite sure what Israel's preference is in this process for the makeup of the monitoring forces.
Thanks for the good input.
:Holger Danske
Post a Comment