Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Basra Conflict Represents Defining Moment For Iraq's Maliki


Iraq's Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, is in Basra as I write this, overseeing Iraqi Army operations against a myriad of Sadr militias, Iranian-backed Shiite militias, and the Hizballuh Brigades of Iraq and this represents a hugely defining moment in Maliki's leadership of the new government. Some might say this is a defining moment for all of Iraq. The article here from TIME does a good job of laying out what has happened over the past year in Basra and this is a good snippet of that:


Many Iraqis blame Basra's descent into chaos on flawed British strategy. They contend that in their haste to draw down forces, the British did little to train and bolster the local police force. Instead, many militia fighters were recruited into the police, making the force a part of Basra's problems rather than a solution.

But what I think this means to Maliki is even more. He is personally seeing for himself just how tough the job has been for the American troops that have given so much to see that violence subsides in his country. American politicians have told Maliki that his government needs to make progress politically and quickly and this operation in Basra should show the kind of sacrifice that America has made. This is a tough situation in Basra and also, don't forget that Maliki is also involved personally in the operations going on to try and wrest control of Mosul from al Qaeda.

What Maliki will find out is this: his country would not exist today if it weren't for the defense of it by the Americans and coalition troops over the past 2 years. At the same time, it is good that the Americans have left the Basra operation to the Iraqis - this will test their ability to stand up to the presence that will be there when U.S. troops eventually withdraw. I think the down side here is that the Iraqi Army will find the Basra operation will take weeks, if not months to control - the Iranians, the Sadrists and Hezbollah have a lot invested in Basra and won't give up their control and influence there.

But when it all shakes out and America expresses its disappointment in the political progress in Iraq, Maliki will KNOW just why we are in that frame of mind.


Maliki's Moment of Truth in Basra

The massive operation by the Iraqi army in Basra could be a defining battle against Shi'ite militias. Reports from the southern city — the hub of Iraq's oil industry and gateway to its main ports — say fierce fighting has broken out between government forces and militias. Eyewitnesses have told TIME of several smoke plumes rising out of the city's northern districts, and the sound of explosions and gunfire. Iraqi TV channels have shown images of helicopters flying over the city, and troops sweeping through some streets. At least 22 people were killed, and 58 wounded, in the fighting

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki arrived in Basra on Monday, accompanied by his ministers for defense and the interior, to personally supervise the operation. For Maliki, this is a crucial show of force. For much of the past three years, the Iraqi government has had little influence over Basra. As British troops have steadily withdrawn from the city, it has fallen into the control of three major Shi'ite militias — Moqtada al'Sadr's Mahdi Army, the Iran-backed Badr Brigades and a local group associated with the Fadila Party. The three have recently fought turf battles over large swaths of the city, claiming hundreds of lives.
Although there are over 4,000 British troops at a base outside Basra, they have done little to curb the violence. "We have a capacity to provide air and other specialist support if needed, but at this time British involvement is minimal," a British Ministry of Defense spokesman said, declining to be identified in accordance with department policy. Many Iraqis blame Basra's descent into chaos on flawed British strategy. They contend that in their haste to draw down forces, the British did little to train and bolster the local police force. Instead, many militia fighters were recruited into the police, making the force a part of Basra's problems rather than a solution.
Maliki's government has repeatedly sworn to bring the militias to heel, but this is the first major offensive it has mounted in Basra. Early reports suggest the military drive is targeting the Mahdi Army, which controls much of northern Basra. But Iraqi officials have said Tuesday the operation will continue until all militias have surrendered.
Maliki's government and the Iraqi Army desperately need a big military success. Most of the credit for the reduction in violence across Iraq over the past year has gone to the U.S. military's "surge" strategy, and to the Sunni tribes that switched sides to fight al-Qaeda. The Iraqi security forces have appeared, at best, mere spectators; at worst, they are seen as sectarian militias in uniform. A spectacular win in Basra would help give the army and police some much-needed credibility among ordinary Iraqis.

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