The Future of Syria

I was emailed this latest entry written by a friend, Chicagodudewhotrades, and thought that he's done an excellent job of framing up the disaster that has become Syria.

I wanted to share it with all of you as today, another 8 Syrians were killed in the fighting in that country.

The Future of Syria: Poor, Nasty, Brutish and Short


On 26 January 2011, the 'Arab Spring' arrived in Syria. The result so far has been bloody. I fear that the future there could also be bloody for years and maybe even decades. I do not see a winner of this struggle for possibly years. I also believe that the uprising against the Assad regime could even spread across borders and engulf the entire region in bloodshed.


People should be paying attention to the Syrian uprising for a couple important reasons. First, if the uprising does spread to other parts of the region, then the already tragic loss of life could multiply many times. If this conflict does indeed become regional, then there could be a serious negative effect on the American economy in the form of much higher energy prices. Lastly, I believe the regime could be in possession of chemical weapons that may have been secretly moved out of Saddam Hussein's Iraq before the 2003 invasion. If the Assad regime finds itself with it's back to the wall, these weapons (if the regime does possess them) could be used in a last ditch attempt to stay in power. If this ever happens, then I believe that the world will HAVE to respond with military force against the regime.


If the regime manages to hang on to power and squash the uprising, then the retribution against anyone who dared to stand up against it will be ghastly. The late Hafez al-Assad (the father of the current dictator Bashir) ordered the Syrian army to conduct a brutal crackdown against the town of Hama in 1982 in order to put down a rebellion. This massacre is estimated to have killed anywhere from 10,000 to 40,000 Syrians.


Assad will NOT step down from power voluntarily. Look up ' Gaddafi, Muammar ' for a possibility on how this ends. When Assad falls from power, I think the payback against the minority Alawites and anyone connected with the ruling Ba'ath Party for the over 40 years of dictatorial rule will also be bloody and could last for years. This does NOT mean that I am a regime supporter. The Assad regime has committed unspeakable crimes against the country and must be held accountable for this. All I am pointing out is that the 'solution' could involve much bloodshed too.



A problem with dictatorships is that the guy at the top is paranoid about threats against him so he will eliminate any potential rivals, this means when he does fall there is usually no one left to fill the power vacuum and anarchy reigns. This is what happened in Libya last year. This could easily become Syria's fate as well.


A reason this uprising could spread across the region, or at the very least become a prolonged civil war is because a lot more countries then just Syria have stakes in this conflict.


Russia has been a strong supporter of the Assad regime for decades. It's only port located outside the Russian Federation's borders is at Tartus Syria. This port is Russia's ONLY year long warm water port. The port facilities there help support Russian naval deployments into the Mediterranean Sea. This port is a HUGE matter of geo-political importance to Russia. Because of this, I think they would be willing to do nearly everything short of openly committing their own ground forces to prop up the regime. But as this link suggests I may already be wrong:

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/03/19/russian-troops-reportedly-enter-syria/


Another country with a huge stake in preserving the Syrian status quo are the Iranians. Iran and the Syrian regime are close allies. Iran uses Syria as a transit channel to ship weapons to their Hezbollah proxies in Lebanon. If Syria is lost as a ally, then the easy transport routes from Iran to Lebanon are lost as well. Unlike the Russians, I believe the Iranians would be willing to go 'all in' to preserve the regime. However, what exactly that could mean is hard to tell.


A quick look at the past is another reason why I believe this struggle could be incredibly bloody and last for years. The Lebanese Civil War which happened literally next door to Syria lasted 15 years and claimed anywhere from 150,000 to 230,000 deaths. That averages out to 10,000-15,000 deaths per year. So far, around 8,000 deaths have been reported since this began in Syria one year ago.




Below are some estimates of how the Syrian rebellion may turn out:


The regime manages to hold on to power in it's current form: Less then 5%
I believe the regime is too damaged to continue on the way things have been. The myth of the Assad regime being invincible to opposition has been shattered forever.

The Alawite minority continues to hold on but without Assad at the top: Less then 10%
Maybe something can be worked out where the Alawites continue to run the country in exchange for peace and the handing over of Bashir Assad to the opposition to stand trial but I doubt it. I think too much blood has be already spilled for this to be a workable idea.

Assad gets deposed by a military coup: Less then 10%
This is also a bit far-fetched. Since it is the military doing the killing, I don't see a deal worked out on this either.

Regime falls, and everyone fights a civil war over whatever is left: 60% or greater
Given the history of the region and what is at stake, I really think this is the most likely outcome. The opposition to the regime is unified on getting rid of Assad, but after that.... they are pretty splintered on what they want next for Syria. This isn't a good sign. To quote a movie title: "There will be blood'. Just how many lives are lost, how long this goes, and who else gets dragged down into this are really the only questions left.

As you can see, I am very pessimistic about Syria's future. I just don't see any real good news on the horizon. Even some of the best outcomes still mean plenty of killing as decades-old scores are finally settled. The truly worst-case scenario would be this uprising spreading across borders, causing instability across the region and triggering a full-scale conventional war in response, This is why this conflict needs to be watched closely. I hope I am wrong, but I doubt it.