Has Assad Put Down the Revolution? Does Syria Owe It All To Russia and Iran?

Thanks to a comment at my last post by "Anonymous", he/she pointed me to this article just out at DEBKA that basically states that western intelligence is calling the Syria revolt over and that Assad has managed to stay in power.

From the article:

Western intelligence sources reporting in real time concluded Saturday night, Feb. 11 that Bashar Assad's loyal forces had by and large managed to subdue the rebellion against the regime, even though flare-ups are still to come. They are now purging the last pockets of resistance, especially in Syria's third largest city, Homs. The Syrian ruler will go on record as crushing his own people with the help of non-Arab Iran and Russia.

Now, I have not called or any U.S. intervention in Syria nor have I railed for supporting the rebels in the fight there - quite frankly, I never was able to identify any rebel group worthy of supporting. Sure Assad is bad news but as we've seen in other Arab countries, the new powers can be even worse. What I was hoping for was complete chaos and what would eventually evolve into a complete power vacuum for a couple of years. What this would have done would have cut off huge support to Hezbollah and at the same time, reduced one of the threats to Israel.

At the same time, what we have seen in Syria is a military that is a piece of shit - they have floundered with a simple rebellion in their country and these guys have wanted war with Israel over the Golan? Yeah right. Israel could cut through Syria in less than a week.

It's not good to see Iran being able to control this country and perhaps this claim of victory may be a little premature but at the same time, there was no clear good alternative to Assad.

Assad wins out against opposition as Russia and Iran strengthen ties


Western intelligence sources reporting in real time found Saturday night, Feb. 11, that Bashar Assad's loyal military and security forces had by and large managed to subdue the rebellion against the regime. They are now purging the last pockets of resistance, especially in Syria's third largest city, Homs. Still to come are possible flare-ups here and there and inevitably more horror stories of atrocities, but to all intents and purposes Syria's eleven-month uprising is all but over.

In recent days, mass demonstrations and battles with armed rebels have virtually disappeared from the streets of the main protest centers of Daraa, Hama, Deir al-Zour, Abu Kemal, Zabadan and the restive outskirts of Damascus, which armed rebels briefly captured last month.
In Homs, soldiers of the 40th and 90th mechanized brigades are hunting down rebels hiding in the town and shooting them on sight.
A new name joined the gallery of Syrian mass murderers this week: Gen. Zuhair al-Assad, commander of the brutal six-day tank-backed assault and siege of Homs. This kinsman of the president had no qualms about gunning down hundreds of civilians in order to liquidate a small armed rebel group.
debkafile's military sources report that without outside armed intervention to halt the bloodbath – and there is no sign of any repetition of the NATO action which cut short Muammar Qaddafi's long reign – Bashar Assad will soon finish crushing the popular and armed resistance against him, helped by arms and military backing from Russia, Iran and Hizballah.

Military intervention is not on the cards for the United States - Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu was told Friday, Feb. 9 when he arrived in Washington to request US participation in organizing a Turkish-Arab operation in Syria or, at least, the supply of Western and Arab arms to the Syrian rebels.

Of the six revolts against Arab autocracies in the past year, two were crushed. The King of Bahrain was saved by Saudi and Gulf military support and now Assad looks like being the second survivor. The difference between them is that the Al-Khalifa House of Bahrain was rescued by Arab forces while the Syrian president is stamping out the uprising against him with the help of non-Arab powers, Iran and Russia.

Both powers sent important officials to Damascus last week: Iran's al Qods Brigades commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani was there Sunday and Monday (5-6 Feb.) at the head of a large military-intelligence delegation. No sooner was it gone when Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and SVR intelligence chief Mikhail Fradkov were deposited at the door of Assad's presidential palace.
According to debkafile's military and intelligence sources, both were on missions to finalize Russian-Iranian-Syrian collaboration in Syria and the Middle East after the regime finally suppresses the revolt.

Saturday night, Moscow pledged to continue to shield the Assad regime at the United Nations
Although fighting continues in some places, Bashar Assad is at the threshold of a major success. His victory may be short-lived but it is significant all the same, offering kudos for the Iranian-Syrian-Hizballah alliance and a contretemps for the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia.