There's a story going around pretty hot and heavy right now that I believe broke at DEBKA and has been picked up by other news media that Osama bin Laden and his top deputies, including al Qaeda #2 Ayman al Zawahiri, have been living in northeastern Iran for the past five years. I ran across this at both Maggie's Notebook and also over at The Australian.
Here's the piece from The Australian:
Now, I have found DEBKA very reliable over the past 18 months but on this one, I have some serious doubts. I'll give you my gut feeling on this story - I have no facts to back it up, just a "feeling"....
Let me start by saying that if bin Laden and al Zawahiri had been living in Iran, it would have been one of the safest places in the world for them and they would have been putting out videos and audios probably twice every month - but we have seen the exact opposite....it's been AGES since we've heard from either one, especially al Zawahiri. I, personally, think bin Laden and his crew got caught up in Pakistan about the time that the Pakistani government made the big decision to take it to the Taliban there and bin Laden simply couldn't risk getting out. And also, I don't believe that bin Laden and al Zawahiri have been together, physically, since they fled from Afghanistan - it was too critical that both of them not get taken out at the same time.
If you noticed, the communications from bin Laden and al Zawahiri pretty much dried up as the Pakistani military moved into South Waziristan and Swat and also about the time that U.S. drone strikes were tripling. At the same time, during this period, al Qaeda activity worldwide was spotty and what actually did transpire was pretty hokey, amateurish stuff. If the al Qaeda leaders had been safe and sound in Iran, their communications ability would have been such that they could have really brought back some coordination into the organization.
So, for what it's worth, here is my estimate of what is really going on. I truly believe that Ayman al Zawahiri is dead - I'm not sure if he was a casualty of the Pakistani artillery or helo strikes or an American UAV strike or natural causes, but I do believe he is dead. Now, knowing my luck, the clown will surface with a new video tomorrow just to spite me....haha. At the same time, I think bin Laden is alive but sicker than shit. I believe that bin Laden was at one time in North Waziristan and began moving out as the Pakistani offensives began...but he couldn't get far enough away. But, in the last few months I think he made a dash for it and I believe he made it across the border back into Afghanistan - thus, I believe you will find Osama bin Laden right now in Paktika province in southeastern Afghanistan.
Okay, there's my conjecture. Anyone want to toss in their two bits, just detail your opinions away in the comments below.
Here's the piece from The Australian:
Bin Laden, aides 'hiding in Iran'
AL-QAEDA leader Usama bin Laden and his top deputies have been living in a town in northeastern Iran for the past five years, and Turkish intelligence officials knew about it, Israeli intelligence claims.
Turkish intelligence officials were aware that the terror mastermind, along with top ranking al Qaeda officials including number two Ayman al-Zawahiri, have been living in the remote mountainous town of Savzevar. the Israel-based intelligence news service DEBKAfile reported today.
The leak to a Kuwaiti newspaper of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan’s knowledge that Iran has been harbouring bin Laden was meant to show the Obama administration how closely Turkey is now tied to the Islamic regime in Tehran, according to DEBKAfile.
US intelligence sources said last month that senior al Qaeda operatives in Iran had been allowed to leave the country through Syria to plot attacks on American targets, the report said.
Until now, bin Laden has been believed to be hiding closer to the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.
Now, I have found DEBKA very reliable over the past 18 months but on this one, I have some serious doubts. I'll give you my gut feeling on this story - I have no facts to back it up, just a "feeling"....
Let me start by saying that if bin Laden and al Zawahiri had been living in Iran, it would have been one of the safest places in the world for them and they would have been putting out videos and audios probably twice every month - but we have seen the exact opposite....it's been AGES since we've heard from either one, especially al Zawahiri. I, personally, think bin Laden and his crew got caught up in Pakistan about the time that the Pakistani government made the big decision to take it to the Taliban there and bin Laden simply couldn't risk getting out. And also, I don't believe that bin Laden and al Zawahiri have been together, physically, since they fled from Afghanistan - it was too critical that both of them not get taken out at the same time.
If you noticed, the communications from bin Laden and al Zawahiri pretty much dried up as the Pakistani military moved into South Waziristan and Swat and also about the time that U.S. drone strikes were tripling. At the same time, during this period, al Qaeda activity worldwide was spotty and what actually did transpire was pretty hokey, amateurish stuff. If the al Qaeda leaders had been safe and sound in Iran, their communications ability would have been such that they could have really brought back some coordination into the organization.
So, for what it's worth, here is my estimate of what is really going on. I truly believe that Ayman al Zawahiri is dead - I'm not sure if he was a casualty of the Pakistani artillery or helo strikes or an American UAV strike or natural causes, but I do believe he is dead. Now, knowing my luck, the clown will surface with a new video tomorrow just to spite me....haha. At the same time, I think bin Laden is alive but sicker than shit. I believe that bin Laden was at one time in North Waziristan and began moving out as the Pakistani offensives began...but he couldn't get far enough away. But, in the last few months I think he made a dash for it and I believe he made it across the border back into Afghanistan - thus, I believe you will find Osama bin Laden right now in Paktika province in southeastern Afghanistan.
Okay, there's my conjecture. Anyone want to toss in their two bits, just detail your opinions away in the comments below.
1 comment:
Holger, thanks for your comment at my place and the lovely link. I added you to my article as another theory to consider.
I didn't print DEBKAfile's reason for why this is happening now, because it made no sense to me. I just sent readers there to read it for themselves. I thought the wording very strange:
i.e.) implicating Turkish Prime Minister, warning al Qaeda so they will get on the move, and nudging Obama - all this from Kuwait.
Had the wording been different, I might have had a better understanding.
Your point that if these two were in Iran, we would be seeing videos right and left makes sense.
You mention how ill bin Laden is, and I believe that also unless all the major kidney problems we were told about were untrue. Kidney dialysis is a very difficult thing to do from a cave, or a small town in Iran - all though the last would not be impossible with his money.
Thanks for another view, my friend.
So, I was very happy to see your concise ideas about this.
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