Saturday, January 30, 2010

Report: Iranian Militia Teams Set To Storm British Embassy In Tehran


This report is coming from DEBKA here and states that the brutal Iranian militias, the Basij, are plotting to storm the British embassy in Tehran and while it may sound a bit "out there", one can't deny this from the article:


Western intelligence agencies monitoring Iran have warned London that radical groups are secretly preparing to overrun the British embassy buildings and living quarters and take the diplomats hostage, replicating the siege of the US embassy in 1979, when extremist students held the staff hostage for 444 days.

More from the article:


Our intelligence sources report that two Iranian militia teams have been formed to seize the two compounds: one takes orders from Ayatollah Mohammad Mesbah Yazdi, whereas the other is under the command of senior cleric Hojat-ol-Eslam Ahmad Khatami. The plan has been submitted to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad for approval. He favors the project but has yet to set a date.

So, let's say this is true and it does happen. What happens next? Well, us Americans have a little bit of experience as to what happens when Iranian militants take over an embassy and hold people hostage. And yes, we have experience with how long that hostage experience can drag on if you have a weak-kneed leader confronted with this affront. So, with Gordon Brown in charge in Britain, we could likely see a hostage-taking event that could rival the length of time that occurred under Jimmy Carter.

So, what could the Iranians gain from such a blatant capture of British citizens? Let me propose a couple of theories:

1. The Iranians sense that the Israelis are getting closer to some decision about an attack on Iranian nuke facilities and by holding Brit hostages, they can stave off that attack. Britain certainly has a history to bowing to Iranian demands in similar scenarios and that is why the British embassy would be targeted. The Iranians would bet that the Israelis would yield to British calls to halt an operation until the hostages are returned.

2. The Iranians have more of their personnel being held in Iraq that anyone really realizes and this capture of the British embassy would be used to get release of all Quds and Revolutionary Guard personnel currently being held in Iraq. Again, the British have worked behind the scenes in these kinds of deals to release Iranian personnel from Iraq in return for kidnapped British journalists and civilians in the past.

At this point in time, can anyone put ANYTHING past the Iranians? Does this plan seem so far fetched? I think not. The Iranian regime right now is teetering on the head of a pin and it's my belief that they feel they need to go on some sort of offensive - if this does happen, it will be interesting to see just how the West reacts...will the West respond like the past few years with strong words and bogus sanctions or will there finally be a real response...a response that includes hell from above and from the sea?


Iranian Basijj plots UK embassy seizure


debkafile's Iranian sources report that the Basijj militia chiefs have a plan to seize the British embassy in Tehran. Western intelligence agencies monitoring Iran have warned London that radical groups are secretly preparing to overrun the British embassy buildings and living quarters and take the diplomats hostage, replicating the siege of the US embassy in 1979, when extremist students held the staff hostage for 444 days. Those students were the early nucleus of the radical Revolutionary Guards Corps.Britain maintains two embassy compounds in Tehran - one downtown occupies a 100-yer old landmark building surrounded by a large garden and a wall; the other housing the embassy's nerve center and living quarters on a large site which the deposed shah presented to Her Majesty's Government as a gift.
Our intelligence sources report that two Iranian militia teams have been formed to seize the two compounds: one takes orders from Ayatollah Mohammad Mesbah Yazdi, whereas the other is under the command of senior cleric Hojat-ol-Eslam Ahmad Khatami. The plan has been submitted to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad for approval. He favors the project but has yet to set a date. It has also provoked controversy in the Majlis (parliament).
The pretext for the seizure would be that the two sites are the rightful property of the Iranian people. The real reason is that the Iranian regime has been gunning for Britain for some time, scheming revenge for London's alleged direct role in organizing the wave of opposition protests besetting the government since last June. Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has been leveling this charge at the UK for the last six months.Most of all, the Islamic regime would like to set off a huge row with Britain to overshadow the dispute over another round of tough sanctions against Iran for its nuclear program.
The radical factions behind Ahmedinejad are cheered on by China's opposition to sanctions and even more bucked up by the letter the US Chamber of Commerce sent to President Barack Obama urging him to refrain from harsher sanctions.While played up in Tehran, this letter received little media coverage in the US and none at all in Israel.It states: “The proposed sanctions would incite economic, diplomatic, and legal conflicts with U.S. allies and could frustrate joint action against Iran.”Iranian radicals believe US business interests took this position under the influence of Tehran's intransigence in the face of Western pressure to cut back on their weapons-related nuclear projects. They insist that by continuing to play hard ball they will throw the plans for serious military action or economic penalties out of court altogether.

1 comment:

chicagodudewhotrades said...

I think the past captures of Brit naval personnel was the test to judge brit/western reaction. This comes from debka, so i believe that there is some 'grain of salt' info here, but if reports of Iranian economic weakness and the resulting domestic dissatisfaction with the regime are to be believed, then a move like this to take pressure off the leadership and focus the nation on a crisis would help the leadership