An Analysis of U.S. Airstrikes In Pakistan

This really is an awesome, indepth analysis of the airstrike campaign that has been underway in NW Pakistan by the U.S., put out by The Long War Journal. It is a must read. I've excerpted some of it below but a full read is encouraged.

I think it's important to point out that somehow, someway they U.S. is getting some incredibly accurate intel that has made these predator drone strikes so incredibly effective. And at the same time, one cannot ignore how big of a turnaround has happened in Pakistan - not only do we have this kind of success by U.S. airstrikes but in unison, the Pakistani military has been gutting the Taliban and al Qaeda in the Swat Valley and other areas of the NW Frontier Provinces. Now, if Barack Hussein Obama would get his royal head out of his ass in regards to commitments to Afghanistan, it's entirely possible that the Taliban could find themselves in the middle of two wedges.

Analysis: A look a US airstrikes in Pakistan through September 2009


In August and September of 2009, the US covert air campaign in Pakistan's lawless, Taliban-controlled tribal agencies scored four high value al Qaeda and Taliban targets. The deaths of Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud and three senior al Qaeda leaders have helped to fuel the push for increasing the role of strikes in Pakistan. The US is now urging Pakistan to take on the Quetta Shura, led by Mullah Omar, and other targets in Baluchistan, and has considered expanding the air campaign outside Pakistan's tribal areas.
The US is also considering switching from a counterinsurgency-based strategy in Afghanistan, which focuses on securing the Afghan people and building up the government and military, to a counterterrorism-based strategy that focuses on covert raids and airstrikes against al Qaeda in Pakistan. This potential strategy shift is meeting resistance from circles within the US military and the intelligence communities, who while supportive of the present air campaign in Pakistan, warn that the tactic has limited use in dismantling al Qaeda and believe that such a strategy would destabilize Pakistan and lead to a Taliban takeover of much of Afghanistan.
As the debate over the way forward in Afghanistan and Pakistan continues, the US air campaign in Pakistan has not abated. The number of strikes this year has already exceeded the total from last year, and there is no sign of letting up.
A look at the publicly available data on the US air campaign in Pakistan shows a marked increase in the frequency in attacks since 2008. These attacks are also becoming increasingly lethal. A little more than one in three of the strikes have killed a High Value Target (HVT). An overwhelming number of strikes – nearly 90 percent – have taken place against al Qaeda and Taliban targets in North and South Waziristan. Notably, a large percentage of the high value targets killed were killed in a tribal region operated by a Taliban leader whom the Pakistani military and government considers an ally.
Frequency of US strikes continues to trend upward
The US has continued to keep the pressure on al Qaeda in Pakistan’s tribal areas, and the attack tempo has remained high relative to the number of attacks carried out from June 2004 through July 2008. Since the first recorded strike in June of 2004 that killed Taliban commander Nek Mohammed, there have been 87 US strikes inside Pakistan. Seventy-six of these attacks have taken place since January 2008.
Beginning in August 2008, the US began stepping up strikes against Taliban and al Qaeda elements in the tribal agencies. There were 28 airstrikes in the tribal agencies between August and December 2008 – nearly three times the total number of airstrikes in the previous four years combined. There was one recorded strike in 2004, one in 2005, three in 2006, and five in 2007. [see Chart 1, "Number of US airstrikes inside Pakistan"]
So far this year, the US has already exceeded the total number of airstrikes carried out in all of 2008. There were 36 recorded strikes in 2008, compared to 42 strikes from Jan. 1 to Sept. 29, 2009. [see Chart 2, "Frequency of US strikes in Pakistan, 2008 vs. 2009"]
Lethality of strikes
The lethality of Predator strikes inside the tribal agencies has also continued to increase during 2009. Using low-end estimates of casualties (including Taliban, al Qaeda, and civilian) from US strikes inside Pakistan, we have determined that airstrikes resulted in 317 deaths during 2008. Already, the airstrikes in 2009 have surpassed that total, with 447 killed in 2009 as of Sept. 29, 2009. [see Chart 3, "Deaths in Pakistan from Predator strikes, 2008 vs. 2009"]
Another indicator of the increasing lethality of US airstrikes inside Pakistan is the rising average number killed per attack. So far in 2009, the average casualty rate has been 10.64 killed per strike, compared to 8.81 in 2008. The 2009 lethality average has dropped from the previous number calculated in July 2009, which was 11.77 deaths per strike.