Friday, January 2, 2009

So, What Is Hamas' Strategy Against An Israeli Ground Operation?


This article here at DEBKA details some strategy that Hamas may use against the IDF once they finally move their ground forces into Gaza. Although this strategy is probably mostly conjecture, I think it holds a good amount of sense to it. Here's some of the details:


DEBKAfile's military sources report that Hamas does not propose to put its entire 15,000-strong army in harm's way against the expected Israeli military invasion. It will confine its resistance to small pockets and sabotage and let Israel troops occupy most of Gaza Strip territory. Assuming the incoming force will stop short of conquering Gaza City and put it to siege, Hamas planners believe this siege force will be Israel's Achilles heel. They propose to wear it down over weeks by nocturnal guerrilla forays from within Gaza City and force an inconclusive end to the conflict.

Hamas strategists expect the Israeli ground operation to start with a simultaneous three-prong incursion of armor and special forces from the north, the east and the south. The invaders will occupy most of the 20x40-kilometer area of the Gaza Strip within 5 to 7 days at most, skirting and encircling Gaza City and other main towns. They will then, according to Hamas' calculations, carve the territory up into five pockets, each with its own military commander.

Pocket 1 will extend from the southernmost Philadelphi belt on the Egyptian border up to the southern outskirts of Khan Younis. Israeli units will then set about destroying the network of hundreds of smuggling tunnels which has kept Hamas supplied with arms, fuel and reinforcements through Sinai. Cairo may have tacitly approved the Israel plan.
Pocket 2 will cover the Khan Younes district up to the Kissufim junction.
Pocket 3 will cover the central region of the Gaza Strip up to the Karni Crossing, including the Moazi and El Bureij refugee camps.
Pocket 4 will encompass Jebalya, Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahiya, the primary rocket and missile sites, up to the northern border with Israel.
Pocket 5 An Israeli force will encircle Gaza City and send detachments into the town to liquidate Hamas targets and operatives from allied Palestinian terror groups.
So, what is the Hamas strategy at this point? It would make sense that Hamas would congregate itself into Gaza City for the most part so they can benefit from the human shields of the civilians in that biggest city. And at the same time, Gaza City lends itself to urban guerilla warfare which certainly takes the Israeli big guns out of the picture. Here's how DEBKA describes it:


Hamas believes the IDF force will be at its most vulnerable when its Gaza City siege force is faced with an active fighting front of 3,000-5,000 armed Palestinians. By day, they will mingle with the civilian population and by night emerge from hideouts in private homes to hit the Israeli armored forces from the rear with anti-tank weapons and suicide bombers.
The Palestinian group's leaders are counting on inflicting casualties that will mount up week after week and wear Israeli forces down until they are driven into an ignominious retreat.

Yes, I think this is all wishful thinking on Hamas' part - the Israelis are nothing even close to predictable in this situation - for one thing, Israel has shown a willingness to take risks with bombs already in civilian areas. The thing I don't read from this analysis is patience...the Israelis could certainly weaken Hamas by waiting out a Gaza City full of them - starve em out, in other words. The other key in my mind is the use of IDF special forces - if they were to sweep through Gaza City with the only mission to assassinate Hamas commanders and leaders, by taking out 20 or 30 of them quickly, we could see Hamas fold completely and surrender. And how sweet would it be to see the Hamas flag of green replaced by one of whimpering white?

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I see no reason for the IDF to accept casualties by going in to Gaza, just pound the fuckers by air. So far they are doing a great job, why stop a strategy that works. The IDF intel seems to be exceptional right now. It seems that they are spotting the launching sites quite well and taking them out. Give the bombardment more time, sooner or later the hamas leadership will step outside or their hidey holes will be found, then give them a taste of the ol jdam or hellfire.

That cesspit known as Gaza is not worth the loss of any IDF troopers.

Anonymous said...

Sharku, I think Israel may be thinking...

(1) They are starting to run out of missile targets, as they have started hitting a lot of empty buildings that hamas was using - and...

(2) Israel knows how fickle world opinion is and they know have a finite window of opportunity to mop up the hamas vermin and the more deeply hidden armaments, and that takes boots on the ground.

I too would prefer they ignore world opinion and just bomb gaza into finely powdered dust - than lose a single IDF trooper.