Hamas leader, Khaled Mashaal, (you know, the leader who sits 1000 miles away from the bombs and rockets in a plush condo in Damascus) has declared that Hamas will observe a one week ceasefire in Gaza and in that time, Israel must withdraw from Gaza and also open border crossings. Here's some of the details from the report at The Jerusalem Post:
Here was a buffered Israeli response:
Now, I agree that I don't think the Israelis want to stay in Gaza but at the same time, I don't see them leaving until they are certain that Hamas isn't going to fire rockets into Israel. And that's a huge question, of course. The real sticking point here in the Hamas demands is the opening of borders. There is NO WAY that the Israelis will agree to that...thus, we are going to end up at a stalemate on that issue. It's going to be a case of who blinks.
Here's how I see this all shaking out. If Hamas does curtail rocket attacks over the next week, I think you will see Israel withdraw from the Gaza Strip - I don't think they will be out in a week but will show movement out in a week. At that point in time, Hamas will demand the borders be opened and Israel will refuse. And at that point, we will see Hamas rockets start flying again into Israel. I believe that if Hamas rockets fall on Israel for two consecutive days, the Israelis will begin more IAF strikes on Gaza.
The other critical point of Israeli decision making is going to be what happens in Egypt regarding the policing of the smuggling tunnels. If the Egyptians back down from some commitments to work with the U.S. in securing the Egypt/Gaza border, then Israel could easily resume bombings of that corridor along the border.
The one thing we all don't know at this point is just how severely Hamas has been hit - I would say that if Hamas regroups in the next week and does NOT fire more rockets, they will have an internal assessment that will determine if they indeed need some six months or a year to rebuild or if they haven't been hit that hard, they can resume attacks immediately.
Damascus-based Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal announced on Syrian television on Sunday afternoon that the Islamic group would implement a cease-fire in which they would halt all military activity and give IDF troops one week to pull out of the Gaza Strip.
According to the statement, Israel must end the blockade and open the border crossings. It did not elaborate.
A leader of the Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip said that his group agreed to the Hamas truce, adding that other smaller Palestinian factions have signed on, as well.
Here was a buffered Israeli response:
"If in fact we see a cessation of Hamas activity towards Israel, then we could see a long-term ceasefire," Mark Regev told Sky News.
He added that Israel "clearly does not want to" stay in Gaza, and that Israel would do everything it could to maintain the calm.
Now, I agree that I don't think the Israelis want to stay in Gaza but at the same time, I don't see them leaving until they are certain that Hamas isn't going to fire rockets into Israel. And that's a huge question, of course. The real sticking point here in the Hamas demands is the opening of borders. There is NO WAY that the Israelis will agree to that...thus, we are going to end up at a stalemate on that issue. It's going to be a case of who blinks.
Here's how I see this all shaking out. If Hamas does curtail rocket attacks over the next week, I think you will see Israel withdraw from the Gaza Strip - I don't think they will be out in a week but will show movement out in a week. At that point in time, Hamas will demand the borders be opened and Israel will refuse. And at that point, we will see Hamas rockets start flying again into Israel. I believe that if Hamas rockets fall on Israel for two consecutive days, the Israelis will begin more IAF strikes on Gaza.
The other critical point of Israeli decision making is going to be what happens in Egypt regarding the policing of the smuggling tunnels. If the Egyptians back down from some commitments to work with the U.S. in securing the Egypt/Gaza border, then Israel could easily resume bombings of that corridor along the border.
The one thing we all don't know at this point is just how severely Hamas has been hit - I would say that if Hamas regroups in the next week and does NOT fire more rockets, they will have an internal assessment that will determine if they indeed need some six months or a year to rebuild or if they haven't been hit that hard, they can resume attacks immediately.
Hamas declares ceasefire, gives IDF one week to withdraw
While Israel declared it would halt all military activity, it said it would maintain its presence in Gaza until it was clear Palestinian groups in Gaza honor the calm.
In addition, Israel said it would not open any border crossings until all hostilities have ceased.
Shortly after the Hamas declaration, the spokesperson for the Prime Minister's Office reaffirmed Israel's position and expressed hope that the calm would be maintained for the long-term.
"If in fact we see a cessation of Hamas activity towards Israel, then we could see a long-term ceasefire," Mark Regev told Sky News.
He added that Israel "clearly does not want to" stay in Gaza, and that Israel would do everything it could to maintain the calm.
On Saturday, Hamas said it would continue to fight despite Israel's decision unilaterally end the offensive.
However, defiant statements issued by a number of Hamas representatives were countered by sources close to the movement which said the group would honor the cease-fire.
"Hamas needs the lull," the sources said. "They have been hit hard and they have no choice but to comply."
Hamas representatives said they would resist any attempt by Israel or other parties to confiscate its weapons. They also warned against allowing forces loyal to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to return to the Strip.
"We will continue the resistance operations for as long as there is one Zionist soldier in the Gaza Strip," Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum said. "We will continue regardless of the price."
Fawzi said Hamas's conditions for accepting a cease-fire included a halt to the IDF operation, the reopening of the border crossings into the Gaza Strip and the lifting of the blockade.
1 comment:
Michael,
Funny stuff.
Thanks for stopping by.
:Holger Danske
Post a Comment