New U.S. Terror Report Says Al Qaeda Will Decline

Okay...the headline isn't misleading but there certainly are levels of decline and a new terror report out says that indeed the impact of al Qaeda will decline and probably faster than normal due to the alienation they have created in the islamist world due to some of their bloody killing of fellow muslims. Here's a bit of the article at the International Herald Tribune:

A new study of the global future by U.S. intelligence agencies suggests that Al Qaeda may be on the decline, having alienated Muslim supporters with its indiscriminate killing and inattention to the practical problems of poverty, unemployment and education.
While not contradicting intelligence assessments suggesting that Al Qaeda remains a major threat with a strong presence in the tribal areas of Pakistan, the report says the group "may decay sooner" than many experts have assumed because of severe weaknesses: "unachievable strategic objectives, inability to attract broad-based support, and self-destructive actions."

"Although the United States is likely to remain the single most powerful actor, the relative strength of the United States - even in the military realm - will decline and U.S. leverage will become more constrained," the report says.
By 2025, the report predicts, "the U.S. will find itself as one of a number of important actors on the world stage," playing "a prominent role in global events" but not a decisive one as in the past.

Since most of the experts will just dance around the reality, let me try to explain the REAL reason why this report is foretelling such a decline in the role of the U.S. in the war on terror. It's simple... three words: George Walker Bush. The facts are there - following the 9/11 terror attacks on the U.S., President Bush didn't just organize an international coalition to find bin Laden and take down the Taliban in Afghanistan...the Global War on Terror became the defining mission of his presidency. Like him or not, this man, this President has been like an uber pit bull regarding terrorists - the only exception I make to that is the soft treatment he has given the terror groups in the Middle East.



And for me, this is why this report is detailing such a decline in U.S. involvement in the war on terror. We have set the bar under Bush, while under Obama we certainly will be a follower. Most of the Euorpean countries have adopted a stance against terror that basically means..."we'll hunker down and hope it goes away." That will be the policy of Obama. And we will see a very disturbing issue come up very soon where the West will resemble a classroom of middle school students when their teacher is called out of the classroom for a half hour. They just sit there and look at each other.

U.S. report predicts decline for Al Qaeda



WASHINGTON: A new study of the global future by U.S. intelligence agencies suggests that Al Qaeda may be on the decline, having alienated Muslim supporters with its indiscriminate killing and inattention to the practical problems of poverty, unemployment and education.
While not contradicting intelligence assessments suggesting that Al Qaeda remains a major threat with a strong presence in the tribal areas of Pakistan, the report says the group "may decay sooner" than many experts have assumed because of severe weaknesses: "unachievable strategic objectives, inability to attract broad-based support, and self-destructive actions."
From an American point of view, the predicted decline of Al Qaeda is one of the few bright spots in the report, "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World," which predicts a significant relative decline in the world dominance of the United States as China, India and other powers assert themselves.



The new report describes a world riven by increased conflict over scarce food and water supplies and threatened by rogue states and terrorists, widening gaps between rich and poor and the uneven impact of global warming.
The report says Russia's emergence as a world power is "clouded" by persistent corruption and lagging investment in its critical energy industry. It also raises the possibility that a government in Eastern Europe "could be effectively taken over and run by organized crime."
The Global Trends reports are produced every five years by the National Intelligence Council, which represents all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies. They project various possible future scenarios, but the report this year notes, somewhat reassuringly, that "bad outcomes are not inevitable."
The comments on Al Qaeda are based in part on the work of David Rapaport, a professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, who has studied the cycles of terrorist activity in the past, including those associated with anarchism, Marxism and nationalism.
The report says the global Islamic terrorist movement is likely to outlast Al Qaeda itself, with other groups likely to emerge and supplant it. But it foresees a future of frustration and attrition for the group that Osama bin Laden created 20 years ago and built up during the 1990s.
The intelligence agencies note that Al Qaeda has focused almost exclusively on terrorism, in contrast with groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas, which have transformed themselves into political movements. "Al Qaeda has not achieved broad support in the Islamic world," the report says. "Its harsh pan-Islamist ideology and policies appeal only to a tiny minority of Muslims."