Pakistan's Tribal Awakenings Face The Stark Reality, Taliban Attack Meeting Capturing 60

I have been excited about the formation of the lashkars in NW Pakistan as it has reminded me of the formation of the Awakenings in Iraq by the tribes but leave it to Bill Roggio and his article here at The Long War Journal to bring me back to reality:

The Taliban continue to target the tribes that are attempting to organize in the Northwest Frontier Province and the lawless tribal areas. Taliban forces in Swat attacked a tribe that has organized against the extremists in the Matta region.
At least seven tribal members and three Taliban fighters, including local commanders, were killed in the clash. The Taliban took more than sixty members of the tribe hostage.

Now, look at Bill Roggio's analysis here as to why the success of these Pakistani tribal lashkars is probably not going to happen:

The clashes between the local tribes and the Taliban in Swat highlight Pakistan's problems with its tribal strategy. The tribes that have backed the government are marginal players, and there is no overall organization or support from the major tribal leaders or the Pakistani government, a senior US military intelligence official told The Long War Journal.
Saimullah's tribe highlights this point: it is part of the Gujjar community and not a member of the dominant Pashtun tribal confederations that support the Taliban. This serves to isolate them from support once the military withdraws from the region.
The Pakistani tribes are operating as distinct, local fighting forces, while the Taliban can coordinate their activities across the northwest and inside eastern Afghanistan.
"The tribes are limited by geography, the TTP [the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan or the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan] is not," a senior official told The Long War Journal on Sept. 29. "Moreover, the Taliban out-number and out-gun them by more than 20 to 1.

Now, with all of that being said, I'm not giving up in my hopes for an uprising in NW Pakistan. What Roggio's analysis tells me is that the difference here in Pakistan from Iraq is simply that there are very strong and large tribes in NW Pakistan that have not and probably will not join this movement, and that causes a problem. But in my view, what we have on our side is time. We have to realize that given enough time, the Taliban will outwear their welcome with ALL tribes in this area.

The problem is that attacks like this could very well break the back of this movement and these lashkar leaders may end up caving. And if they do, it is going to be one huge mess for the Pakistani government if they send any additional troops into this region.

Taliban attack tribal meeting in Swat

The Taliban continue to target the tribes that are attempting to organize in the Northwest Frontier Province and the lawless tribal areas. Taliban forces in Swat attacked a tribe that has organized against the extremists in the Matta region.
At least seven tribal members and three Taliban fighters, including local commanders, were killed in the clash. The Taliban took more than sixty members of the tribe hostage.
The anti-Taliban tribe is led by Pir Samiullah. He claimed to have organized a lashkar, or tribal militia, of more than 10,000 tribesmen in October to oppose the Taliban and protect the 20 villages in the Matta region.
The Taliban have threatened to kill all captured government officials in Swat. It is unclear if this includes anti-Taliban tribal leaders.
The Pakistani government has been courting the tribes to support the efforts to take on the Taliban in the tribal areas and in the settled districts of the Northwest Frontier Province. Tribal lashkars have been formed in Peshawar, Swat, Dir, Buner, Bajaur, Khyber, and Arakzai.
The clashes between the local tribes and the Taliban in Swat highlight Pakistan's problems with its tribal strategy. The tribes that have backed the government are marginal players, and there is no overall organization or support from the major tribal leaders or the Pakistani government, a senior US military intelligence official told The Long War Journal.
Saimullah's tribe highlights this point: it is part of the Gujjar community and not a member of the dominant Pashtun tribal confederations that support the Taliban. This serves to isolate them from support once the military withdraws from the region.
The Pakistani tribes are operating as distinct, local fighting forces, while the Taliban can coordinate their activities across the northwest and inside eastern Afghanistan.
"The tribes are limited by geography, the TTP [the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan or the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan] is not," a senior official told The Long War Journal on Sept. 29. "Moreover, the Taliban out-number and out-gun them by more than 20 to 1. The tribes may achieve tactics success in some areas, but likely will fail to achieve strategic success."
"The tribes are like islands in a sea of Taliban," a US military officer told The Long War Journal. "The leaders will be butchered once the Army pulls out of Swat."
The Taliban have ruthlessly targeted tribes looking to back the government event while the military is active in some of the regions. Hundreds of tribal leaders have been found murdered and sometimes beheaded.
The Taliban have also attacked meeting of tribal leaders attempting to organize against the extremists. Several tribes in Kohat attempted to organize against the Taliban in January 2008. A suicide attack on a tribal leader’s meeting in early March killed 40 and wounded more than 40. Several senior tribal leaders were killed, and the organized resistance to the Taliban faltered.