Saturday, August 23, 2008

The New Strategy Of The Taliban To Besiege Kabul ...Is An Old One


This really is a fascinating article over at Times Online that talks about the history of combatants finally gaining control of Afghanistan's capital of Kabul by encircling it and cutting off supply routes to it. Here's a few excerpts from the article:


The road from Kabul to Kandahar is even more treacherous, according to other drivers. “If the Afghan Army isn't there, a fly cannot pass,” said Bashir, a lorry owner, pointing to the scorched shells of three vehicles he retrieved from a Taleban raid on the Kandahar road last week. Of 60 lorries, 13 were destroyed, he said. “Why can't the Americans stop this?”

And here's a bit from the history of this tactic being utilized by the Taliban today:


“We're seeing history repeat itself,” said Haroun Mir, co-founder of the Afghanistan Centre for Research and Policy Studies and a former aide to Ahmad Shah Massoud, the assassinated Mujahidin commander. “The Taleban's trying to cut the main roads to Kabul to target supplies for foreign forces, just like the Mujahidin did with the Soviets. If the highways are cut even for two days, it could also create riots in the city.”

And here, you can see that the Taliban have made no mystery of their strategy:


Zabihullah Mujahid, a Taleban spokesman, said that their new strategy was announced by the brother and deputy of Mullah Omar, the Taleban leader, in late 2007. “The Taleban will surround Kabul politically and militarily to make it hard for Nato forces to receive logistic convoys,” he told The Times. “That will mean less Nato movement and will show we can make trouble in the capital.”

The issue is that Kabul is completed surrounded by mountains and every type of supply coming into that city is based upon a network of three major roads. What the Taliban showed the Soviets is that if they stopped the flow into Kabul, the city would fall. And this is the same issue that NATO and the U.S. are facing.

It seems to me that the U.S. and NATO need to create some new strategies of their own regarding this. We saw what General Petraeus' thinking in Iraq did for that war effort, how a simple strategy of increased troop levels and satelliting troops out to the perimeters made such a difference, so why cannot some new method of operating convoys into Kabul be initiated? I'm just blue skying here but the one clear advantage that the Americans and NATO have utilized in Afghanistan that the Soviets did not was the use of air support and particularly AH-64's - that eye in the sky has been huge for coalition forces against the Taliban. The other tactic I am thinking about is the Predator UAV's. If you have a Predator assigned to convoys, that presence could perhaps conduct the intelligence from above of possible concentrations of ambushing Taliban. I know the military leaders have all considered this but at the same time, it sure seems that the strategy of the Taliban on Kabul has been working better and better.


Rockets, guile and the lessons of history: the Taleban besiege Kabul

By that measure, and many others, this looks increasingly like a city under siege as the Taleban start to disrupt supply routes, mimicking tactics used against the British in 1841 and the Soviets two decades ago.
Abdul Hamid, 35, was ferrying Nato supplies from the Pakistani border last month when Taleban fighters appeared on the rocks above and aimed their rocket-launchers at him, 40miles (65km) east of Kabul. “They just missed me but hit the two trucks behind,” he said. “This road used to be safe, but in the last month they've been attacking more and more.”
The road from Kabul to Kandahar is even more treacherous, according to other drivers. “If the Afghan Army isn't there, a fly cannot pass,” said Bashir, a lorry owner, pointing to the scorched shells of three vehicles he retrieved from a Taleban raid on the Kandahar road last week. Of 60 lorries, 13 were destroyed, he said. “Why can't the Americans stop this?”

Seven years after a US-led invasion toppled the Taleban, that is the question now troubling President Karzai and Nato forces in Afghanistan.
Despite the presence of 70,000 foreign troops, the Taleban have advanced on Kabul this year and hold territory just outside Maydan Shar, the capital of Wardak province, 20 miles southwest of the capital.
Militants in Wardak mount almost daily raids on the Kandahar road, which also links the main US bases in Afghanistan. In the past month, they have stepped up attacks on the road from Kabul to Pakistan via Jalalabad - the main supply route for food, fuel and water.
This week they killed ten French soldiers in Sarobi, 30 miles along the Jalalabad road from Kabul. Simultaneously, they attacked the biggest US base in eastern Afghanistan. Such is the fear of a Taleban “spectacular” in Kabul, that when Gordon Brown visited on Thursday he was taken around by helicopter rather than being driven through the streets.

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