Things are happening fast in Georgia and it does not look good. The Georgians are now claiming they have shot down two Russian aircraft and at the same time, columns of Russian tanks have entered Georgia territory. Here's some of the newest details at Times Online:
I look at this situation and I cannot help but think about the start of World War I. If you recall, World War I started between Austria-Hungary and Serbia and because of alliances and treaties involving so many countries, they all got pulled into that conflict that soon became a World War. And so, I look at this conflict in Georgia and one can't help but view the connections of Georgia with the West and NATO as a reason for American and European nations to come to the aid against Russia. Now, I'm not trying to be Chicken Little here or the boy that cried wolf, but if the Russians go all out into this conflict and unleash all they have here, I seriously doubt the West will let Georgia go down like a sacrificial lamb.
In a post this morning here, I just laid out how Israel is assisting Georgia - can you imagine a Russian attack killing Israeli advisors?
This situation, this raging battle has bad news written all over it and I'm not so sure the Russians have thought this out completely.
Georgia claimed today to have downed two Russian warplanes over its territory after the former Soviet neighbours came into direct conflict over the breakaway province of South Ossetia.
Tbilisi mobilised its army reserves and launched a major military offensive overnight to regain control over the province, raising fears of an all-out war that could draw in Russia.
But shortly afterwards, President Saakashvili announced the downing of the two warplanes, suggesting that the conflict had moved into a much more dangerous phase. The Georgian interior ministry had earlier accused Russian of launching a bombing raid injuring seven people.
A column of Russian tanks, trucks and troops was on its way through the neighbouring Russian province of North Ossetia towards South Ossetia, an AFP reporter at the scene said.
I look at this situation and I cannot help but think about the start of World War I. If you recall, World War I started between Austria-Hungary and Serbia and because of alliances and treaties involving so many countries, they all got pulled into that conflict that soon became a World War. And so, I look at this conflict in Georgia and one can't help but view the connections of Georgia with the West and NATO as a reason for American and European nations to come to the aid against Russia. Now, I'm not trying to be Chicken Little here or the boy that cried wolf, but if the Russians go all out into this conflict and unleash all they have here, I seriously doubt the West will let Georgia go down like a sacrificial lamb.
In a post this morning here, I just laid out how Israel is assisting Georgia - can you imagine a Russian attack killing Israeli advisors?
This situation, this raging battle has bad news written all over it and I'm not so sure the Russians have thought this out completely.
Georgia 'downs two Russian warplanes' as countries move to brink of war
Fighting raged around the city of Tskhinvali, the South Ossetian capital, as Georgian troops backed by tanks and warplanes pounded separatist forces today. At least 15 people were reported to have been killed although the death toll was expected to rise.
Georgian officials said this afternoon that a three-hour ceasefire had been declared to allow civilians to leave Tskhinvali and an amnesty had been offered to the separatists.
But shortly afterwards, President Saakashvili announced the downing of the two warplanes, suggesting that the conflict had moved into a much more dangerous phase. The Georgian interior ministry had earlier accused Russian of launching a bombing raid injuring seven people.
A column of Russian tanks, trucks and troops was on its way through the neighbouring Russian province of North Ossetia towards South Ossetia, an AFP reporter at the scene said.
A senior Georgian security official said that heavy military equipment and armoured vehicles were entering South Ossetia through the Roki tunnel from Russia.
Mr Saakashvili, who has aligned his country more closely with the West and wants it to join Nato, told a news briefing in Tiblisi: "One hundred and fifty Russian tanks, armoured personnel carriers and other vehicles have entered South Ossetia. This is a clear intrusion on another country’s territory. We have Russian tanks on our territory, jets on our territory in broad daylight."
He added: "I must also tell you that Georgian forces have downed two Russian jet fighters over Georgia’s territory."
The flare-up presents Dmitri Medvedev, the new Russian President, with the first major crisis. Chairing a meeting of his security council in the Kremlin, he vowed that Moscow would protect its citizens.
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THE GOALS BEHIND MOSCOW’S PROXY OFFENSIVE IN SOUTH OSSETIA
By Vladimir Socor
Friday, August 8, 2008
As anticipated (see EDM, July 11, August 4) Moscow has initiated an offensive military operation by proxy against Georgia in South Ossetia. Although the blow had been expected in upper Abkhazia and may yet materialize there, Russia shifted the direction of attack to the South Ossetian front.
The brazen attacks during the night of August 7 to 8 in South Ossetia left Tbilisi with no choice but to respond. Continuing Georgian restraint would have resulted in irreparable human, territorial, and political losses. Moscow’s military and propaganda operation bears the hallmarks of its blitzkriegs in Transnistria in 1992 and Abkhazia in 1993. Georgia’s defensive response in South Ossetia since August 8 is legally within the country’s rights under international law and militarily commensurate with the attacks.
Russia usually stages military incidents in Georgia in August, while European officials take their vacations. This year, however, the operations are systematic, lengthier, and considerably higher on the ladder of escalation than in previous years. After concentrating supplementary forces in Abkhazia during the spring and expanding its military infrastructure there in early summer, Moscow switched on the escalation process in South Ossetia.
On July 3 an assassination attempt targeted Dmitry Sanakoyev, head of the Tbilisi-backed interim administration of South Ossetia, which controls at least one third of the region’s territory. The blast injured Sanakoyev’s bodyguards. On July 9 Moscow demonstratively acknowledged that four Russian Air Force planes had flown a mission over South Ossetia. That action sought to deter Georgia from flying unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), thus blinding Tbilisi to Russian and proxy military movements in the area. A series of roadside bomb blasts targeted Georgian police patrols. During the second half of July and the first days of August, Russian-commanded Ossetian troops under the authority of Russian-led South Ossetian authorities fired repeatedly at Georgian-controlled villages, forcing Georgian police to fire back defensively.
Meanwhile, Russia’s state-controlled media orchestrated a war scare, accusing Georgia of intentions to attack. In the North Caucasus and Russia proper, Cossack chieftains on government payroll threatened to send “volunteers” to fight against Georgia. The North Ossetian authorities, apparently aware of Moscow’s plans, showed nervousness at the prospect of becoming embroiled in a major military operation by proxy to their south.
The goals behind Moscow’s operation are threefold, each with its own time frame. The immediate goal is to re-establish the authority of Russian-controlled negotiating and “peacekeeping” formats. By firing on Georgian positions unremittingly and escalating the intensity of the fire with every passing day, Moscow hopes to force Georgia to turn to those Russian-controlled formats to relieve the pressure. Furthermore, Moscow wants to force Tbilisi to acknowledge a leading Russian role as “guarantor” of an eventual political settlement.
Moscow’s next goal, on a timeframe overlapping with the first, is to capture Georgian-controlled villages in South Ossetia. The pattern of attacks since August 6 indicate the intent to reduce the Sanakoyev administration’s territory to insignificance or even remove it from South Ossetia altogether. If successful, this undertaking may well be replicated in upper Abkhazia by Russian and proxy forces attempting to evict authorities loyal to Tbilisi.
The strategic political goal is to dissuade NATO from approving a membership action plan (MAP) for Georgia at the alliance’s December 2008 or April 2009 meetings. More immediately, Moscow seeks to derail the North Atlantic Council’s assessment visit to Georgia, scheduled for September, or at least to influence the visit’s assessment about Georgia’s eligibility for a MAP. Since NATO’s “Russia-Firsters” insist that unresolved conflicts disqualify Georgia from a MAP, Russia seeks to demonstrate that those conflicts are indeed unresolved. NATO’s failure to approve a Georgian MAP at the April 2008 summit emboldened Russia to escalate military operations against Georgia.
Moscow also seeks to bleed Georgia economically through protracted military operations. Russia can not tolerate the successful economic performance of a Western-oriented government on Russia’s border. Aware, furthermore, that Georgia’s government is accountable to public opinion, Moscow seeks to force the government to choose between yielding at the risk of a domestic backlash or, alternatively, fighting back in a costly confrontation
Resemblances with the Russian interventions in the early 1990s in Transnistria and Abkhazia are unmistakable. In that scenario, the Russian media create a hysterical, brink-of-war atmosphere, portraying the small country targeted for attack as a dangerous aggressor. Russian-armed proxy troops, already in place on the target country’s territory, attack localities and seats of authority. Cossacks and North Caucasus “volunteers” are sent in. Russian officials can claim that the attackers act on their own, outside Moscow’s control. Russian military intelligence coordinates the operation, while air and ground forces provide cover and would intervene directly if the target country defends itself. In the final stage of this scenario, Russian “peacekeepers” perpetuate the gains achieved on the ground. Throughout the crisis, most Western governments are confused and react irrelevantly by urging restraint on “both sides,” ultimately tolerating the Russian faits accomplis.
That scenario started unfolding in South Ossetia in late July. By August 6 and 7, heavily armed proxy troops opened fire on Georgian villages, while the secessionist authorities refused to talk with Tbilisi. The attacking forces began destroying the transmission antennae of Georgian mobile telephone systems. Arms and paramilitary groups poured in from Russia to South Ossetia through the Russian-controlled Roki tunnel. Russian officials in Georgia claimed that the attacking forces were out of Russia’s control. Officials in Moscow, meanwhile, justified the attacks directly and indirectly by accusing Georgia of aggression (Interfax, Itar-Tass, Russian Television, August 4-7).
At 7:00 P.M. local time on August 7, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili spoke live on national television, announcing a unilateral ceasefire and asking the other side also to cease hostilities. In highly conciliatory words, Saakashvili called for talks “in any format”; reaffirmed the long-standing offer of full autonomy for South Ossetia; proposed that Russia should guarantee that solution; offered a general amnesty; and pleaded for international intercession to stop the hostilities (Rustavi-2 TV, August 7).
Following Saakashvili’s address, attacks on Georgian villages intensified. The village of Avnevi was almost completely destroyed, Tamarasheni and Prisi shelled, and the police station in Kurta, seat of the Sanakoyev administration, smashed by artillery fire. Civilians began fleeing the villages.
These attacks forced Tbilisi to take defensive action. By 10:30 P.M. local time on August 7 the Georgians returned fire. During the night, Georgian forces including armored columns began advancing toward Tskhinvali, the secessionist authorities’ administrative center. These Georgian actions have halted the repetition of a 1992-1993 type scenario in 2008.
Link: http://jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2373298
Meanwhile, russian planes have destroyed the Georgian port of Poti and also bombed several towns and cities in Georgia.
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