Petraeus: Al Qaeda Shifting Resources To Afghanistan From Iraq

I hinted to this yesterday in a post and today General Petraeus has come out saying that the signs are there that al Qaeda resources in Iraq seem to be shifting to fight the terror war in Afghanistan. Here's some of the details from Yahoo News:

After intense U.S. assaults, al-Qaida may be considering shifting focus to its original home base in Afghanistan, where American casualties are running higher than in Iraq, the top U.S. commander in Iraq said Saturday
"We do think that there is some assessment ongoing as to the continued viability of al-Qaida's fight in Iraq," Gen. David Petraeus told The Associated Press in an interview at his office at the U.S. Embassy.
"They're not going to abandon Iraq. They're not going to write it off. None of that," he said. "But what they certainly may do is start to provide some of those resources that would have come to Iraq to Pakistan, possibly Afghanistan."
He said there are signs that foreign fighters recruited by al-Qaida to do battle in Iraq are being diverted to the largely ungoverned areas in Pakistan from which the fighters can cross into Afghanistan.

Now, it's important to hear Petraeus' words that al Qaeda is not abandoning Iraq but if you were an al Qaeda in Iraq jihadist there at the moment, I ask you how comfy you would feel right now about someone watching your back?

At the same time, al Qaeda may find some surprises in Afghanistan. The predominantly Arab aspect of al Qaeda jihadists makes for a bit of a conflict with the Afghan population - simply put, this is not the united front the Afghans put up against the Soviets and would accept any help they could. This is the Taliban fighting to regain control of Afghanistan and we have seen what the Arab members of al Qaeda have done to the population in Iraq - will the Afghan civilians put up with Arabs in their midst torturing their own? I doubt it.

At the same time, Afghanistan is way different from Iraq - al Qaeda's forte' is in the cities with car bombs and IED's and suicide bombers on foot. In Afghanistan, we have mountainous and open area warfare - much better suited to the Taliban.

But all in all, for Gen. Petraeus to see this shift going on in Iraq is just another excellent sign of U.S. victory there.

US general: al-Qaida may be easing effort in Iraq

Discussing al-Qaida in cautious terms, Petraeus said he is not certain of the reliability of the intelligence information about the terrorist network's latest thinking. He was adamant, however, that until now al-Qaida has seen Iraq as its best opportunity for establishing a militant Islamic state closer to the Persian Gulf.
"That could be under review," Petraeus said. "We do think they are considering what should be the main effort."
He offered a mostly upbeat assessment of conditions in Iraq just weeks before he is to make a recommendation on whether to further reduce U.S. troop levels. Petraeus said the country is showing fresh signs of promise not only on the security front, where insurgent attacks are down sharply, but also politically.
He applauded the latest evidence of movement toward reconciliation by Sunnis and Shiites — the announcement Saturday that Iraq's largest Sunni Arab political bloc had ended a nearly yearlong boycott of the Shiite-led government.
"It's a very important step forward," Petraeus said after an aide interrupted the AP interview to deliver the news. The general flashed a wide smile and instructed the aide to pass along his congratulations to top government officials, who have come under enormous pressure from U.S. officials to reconcile.
Petraeus declined to say what he might recommend to President Bush regarding further U.S. troops reductions. The assessment, he said, is based on a range of factors, including the prospects for Iraqi government approval of legislation required before provincial elections can be held this fall.
He would not talk about specific troop levels later this year. But the enthusiasm of Petraeus's description of security, political and even economic progress in 2008 gave the impression he may be inclined to tell Bush that fewer than the current 15 combat brigades will be needed by year's end.