Tuesday, May 27, 2008

CIA Sees ' Succession Crisis ' For Al Qaeda


I was just blogging about all the chatter out there that we may just be zeroing in on bin Laden and this article here, from MSNBC, comes out about how the CIA is expecting a crisis in fill the top roles of leaders at al Qaeda. Let's look at a bit from the article:


The CIA is equally interested in those jockeying to replace bin Laden in what he predicted will be a "succession crisis."
"It will be really interesting to see how that plays out. The organization is a lot more networked than it is ruthlessly hierarchical," Hayden said of the group behind the 9/11 attacks on the U.S. "How do you pick the next overall leader?"

Despite al-Qaida's resilience, taking out bin Laden would be a psychological blow to the organization, Hayden said.
"If there ever was a sense of invulnerability I think killing or capturing him would shatter it once and for all," he said.
I think the fact that Hayden is making these kind of statements is a clear indication that we are getting closer to old Osama...at this very moment. I'm not big on predictions because my accuracy rate isn't that great (I'm sure some of you remember my prediction of all out retribution by Israel over the seminary massacre in Jerusalem) but I gotta gut feeling that we will see an attack on bin Laden himself within the next two weeks. There are just too many signals that something is up.

Hayden goes on in the article to talk about how there have been successes against al Qaeda and that it has paid off - and he's right - the Bush strategy of keeping these peons on their heels HAS worked. We definitely have thrown off the communications and coordination of al Qaeda in the past few years and while we can't count them out, ever, the fact of the matter is they are going to have trouble planning attacks when their cell phones are ringing non-stop about something coming over the next mountain peak.


CIA planning for al-Qaida 'succession crisis'

WASHINGTON - The U.S. is making "a big and continual push" to capture or kill al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden, but his demise won't end the organization's menace, CIA Director Michael Hayden said Tuesday in an Associated Press interview.
The CIA is equally interested in those jockeying to replace bin Laden in what he predicted will be a "succession crisis."
"It will be really interesting to see how that plays out. The organization is a lot more networked than it is ruthlessly hierarchical," Hayden said of the group behind the 9/11 attacks on the U.S. "How do you pick the next overall leader?"

The CIA has been using armed drones to attack alleged terrorists inside the tribal area, as U.S. military forces are barred from pursuing al-Qaida and Taliban fighters across the Afghan border.
Hayden would not say what else the CIA is doing, if anything, to target terrorist enclaves there.
"It's hard for me to get into any details. I understand the situation there and I'm comfortable with the authorities we've been given," he said.
"There's an awful lot of senior leadership killed or captured including even in the last several months," he said.
Although bin Laden remains at large, Hayden said, "On balance I think we are doing pretty well on the war on terror."
"It's not luck," he said. "We've made it more difficult for people who would do us harm. That's not a guarantee. It doesn't mean they won't be back. It doesn't mean we'll always be successful."

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