Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Ahmadinejad Faces A Storm - In His Own Parliament


Even though the hard liners won fairly convincingly in the Iranian parliamentary elections last week (course, most of the reformers were banned from running), Iran's President Ahmadinejad is going to have some tough sledding ahead. Most of the bloc of conservative hard liners that don't like Ahmadinejad's controversial style retained their spots so it will be an interesting year. Ahmadinejad is due for a reelection run sometime in 2009.
Now, the fact of the matter is that in Iran, if you have the blessing of the Ayatollah, then you are in so it's a bit of mute point but if the Ayatollah's support of Ahmadinejad wavers at all, look for the coalition in the parliament to get pretty vocal.

The full story is here.


Stormy Parliament Ahead for Ahmadinejad

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) -- President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may be vulnerable when he stands for re-election next year, after Iranian parliamentary elections showed discontent among fellow conservatives.
The president does have a major advantage: support from Iran's supreme leader. A key question will be whether Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's backing lasts until presidential elections expected in the summer of 2009.
Conservatives maintained their hold on the parliament in Friday's election, but their camp is split over Ahmadinejad. His conservative opponents won a solid bloc that will likely clash with the president over the next year.
Reformists also managed to preserve their presence even though most of their candidates were barred from the race.
"If the government continues the policies that have been controversial, the majority of the parliament will be against it," said Amir Ali Amiri, spokesman of the Inclusive Coalition of Principlists, an election slate of conservatives who have broken with the hard-line president.
Amiri said the coalition might put forward a candidate for the presidency, but said "we must wait" until the political situation becomes clearer, according to the semi-official ISNA news agency.
Two men are seen as top possibilities to challenge Ahmadinejad: Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and former nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, who won a parliament seat in the election.
The strength of Ahmadinejad's conservative opponents likely won't mean changes in Iran's tough line toward the United States.
They support pushing ahead with Iran's nuclear program despite U.N. sanctions. But they also oppose Ahmadinejad inflammatory rhetoric, which they say has provoked the West. Some seek greater pragmatism in dealing with the outside world.
The economy has been Ahmadinejad's weakest point. Jumps in inflation have at least doubled prices for some foods over the past year, and unemployment is believed by some economists to be around 15 percent. And the public has been angered by gas rationing and heating oil shortages during the unusually cold winter.
Ahmadinejad's critics say his economic policies have been haphazard and only made the situation worse.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I dont look for any real changes there until the populace decorates their lampposts with the mullahs. And that could be a long time coming.

Holger Awakens said...

Shark,

I think little boy Mahmoud is gonna have some problems with that thar economy in Iran. They are spending money hand over fist on the nukes and on Hezbollah and Hamas - I don't care if oil hits $125 a barrel - they aren't gonna have enough food in six months. My prediction is the Ayatollah takes Ahmadinejerk out sometime in late summer unless they have moved on an attack on Israel.

:Holger Danske