" Russia is far more dangerous today than in the 1980’s. "

This really is a fascinating article coming from over at Family Security Matters that deals with just how Russia has really never ended their cold war campaign...and that the new Russia is actually a more formidable enemy to the West than ever before.

The article is quite long but I'm still excerpting all of it - there are just too many valid points in it to not cover all of them.

When you look at the current Iranian nuclear situation, it fits perfectly with what this author is stating. Russia has worked the fence on the Iranian crisis for years - they have literally sold nuclear technology to the Iranians yet positioned themselves as the broker for peace there. To me, it is very obvious that Barack Hussein Obama, through his constant fawning over the Russian leadership and concessions, has put his hopes in Russia to solve the Iranian problem.

The problem is ... people like Putin hold a grudge. And with the recent economic upswing in Russia when they were able to actually get on their feet a bit through income from oil and natural gas, the Russians haven't hesitated to flex their muscle. I'm thankful that we have some watchdogs out there who still keep their eye on past enemies who still are, just that.

Exclusive: Time to review the Russian Threat?

Dr. Robin McFee


Russia’s Reach – Far more than espionage!

The temptation to suggest “Russia is at it again” with the recent arrests of several operatives in Massachusetts and elsewhere in the US, working under orders from Moscow, ignores the reality that Russia never stopped being…Russia! The end of the cold war was not the end of the cold warrior. She merely adapted. And some could argue, as I have, Russia is far more dangerous today than in the 1980’s. Back then she was oafish and clumsy – a bull if not bully in a crystal shop. Today she is charismatic, has packaged herself as a global honest broker – a force for reason that counters the influence of the US, especially as friend to developing nations, and much smarter in global affairs. Her leader – Putin is savvy, ruthless, and far more capable as a head of state than most of his counterparts world-wide. His protégé Medvedev (Putin-Lite) is more than an able extension of Putin.

If ‘differences’ between nations, especially super powers, could be solved with a hamburger and a soda, then Ronald McDonald & “Wendy” should become the chief diplomatic officers, not presidents, prime ministers or cabinet secretaries! But nations build alliances, not friendships. Enlightened self interests and global aspirations (dare I suggest ‘appetites’) cannot be made to go away with a “Happy Meal®” or pile of French fries. Diplomacy must take into account the complex interconnectedness of nations, their interests and the potential threats countries and their extensions – industry, criminal enterprises, influence, resources (natural, military, government, economic) and persona (leaders, people) - pose to the United States. Russia is using her full resources to achieve national objectives – including the art of deception! They know us better than we know ourselves. Though it would seem a profound grasp of the obvious that our leaders should be a tad more conversant in all things Russian beyond the perfunctory ‘Western Civilization 101,’ the recent round up of a group of deep cover Russian operatives in the United States shines a light on our resources, and more importantly vulnerabilities, and brings into specific relief that “the reset” button between our nations is both illusory, clearly premature if possible at all, and emblematic of several persistent preparedness flaws inherent in the West –

First – Narcissism! Sun Tzu once cautioned that if you do not know your enemy or yourself you cannot expect to win many battles. Know yourself well and your enemy better and you will win your battles. The US still approaches the world as if everyone thinks as we do, shares our values, wants the same things. How quickly we forget the double speak that goes on in international discourse. How we define “peace” or “mutual benefit” is far different from other players’ definitions of those terms. To think Russia shares the same concerns that we do is foolishness. To then ignore the objectives her leaders have repeatedly stated over the last several years, and to ignore their actions around the world borders on the reckless. We’ll review the Russian threatsin a moment.

The world is a small place, increasingly shrinking courtesy of better transportation, real-time communications. And there are a finite number of players vying for diminishing, valuable resources – territory, energy sources, and customers. Nations are neither friends, nor enemies. They are competitors, and in the ideal, friendly ones, even allies. But in the land of global affairs we would do well to remember the primacy of self interest, and that ultimately everyone is a buyer and a seller. Foreign policy is defined by and underscores a very simple axiom….follow the dollar! During the glory years of the Rising Sun in the 1980’s, the Japanese were often quoted saying “all business is warfare” – we’ve picked a bad time to ignore the lessons of the past.

Second - Silo mentality. We continue as a society and government to think in terms of threats as discrete entities instead of being interrelated and interconnected. To consider Russian relations as if they were a light switch to be turned on and off if just the right fixture were identified is naïve and demonstrates a lack of insight into all things Russian. US foreign policy should be based upon more than wishful thinking or simplistic notions. We cannot afford to approach the world in step-wise fashion when other nations such as Russia and China are multi-tasking – expanding their interests and influence across several domains simultaneously in matrix fashion. Terrorism preparedness is not something that can be tucked into a silo any more than other domestic threats – there is overlap in terms of skills needed to undermine the threats, the agencies tasked with working the problem and the global ties these networks tap into – from governments to criminal enterprises. The lines are blurred; we need to appreciate it.

Third – Quick fix approach to problems. Perhaps it is our youngness as a country, our Yankee ingenuity and national character of entrepreneurialism that makes us both impatient and wedded to a short-term mindset. We are driven by quarterly reports, sound-bites and a short attention span. Somewhat understandable; as far as great nations go, we are still in our infancy at a mere 234 years of age. China has had dynasty’s longer than that! While our impatience has in many ways contributed to our greatness, it is, a double edged sword. We cannot fix complex problems with easy, simplistic, one at a time solutions. As a society we look for the painless answer – a onetime pill to burn off 10 years of obesity, playing craps to win back years of poor financial planning, sharing a Coke ® to change 100 years of national rivalry.

Russian Spying On The US….Does it matter?

Intense media coverage and popular interest notwithstanding, does it really matter what Russia does in terms of our daily lives? If you have to ask?! But to put things into perspective, let me answer that with two words:

“National Debt” – Russia owns A LOT of our government financial instruments. Between our current level of deficit spending and the foreign ownership of our debt, pretty soon the US may become a subsidiary of Moscow Inc or Beijing Ltd! If you don’t think “the ownership effect” has already influenced foreign policy, think again. And in terms of our own daily lives – the debt factor does have an effect on taxes, policy decisions that impact domestic industries (think jobs) and the list goes on…..

Or…

“Dead Soldiers” – Russia is one of the leading arms dealing nations in the world – especially to folks who are not friends of the US. Whether as agent provocateur or direct invader, Russia is not above invading regions or nations (Georgia 2008), supporting insurgents or supplying, even supporting hostile regimes. The missiles defending Tehran don’t have “Made in the USA” on them. The anti-tank weapons used in the Gulf come from several sources – not surprising Russian designs are favored. That is a problem for Israel and ultimately the US.

Or…

“Drug Cartels” – The AK 47s the drug lords across and within our Southwestern Borders were not made or designed by Fisher Price! The Mexican drug cartels are well trained and well financed. Russian Mafia and their criminal cartel are alive and well in the United States, Mexico and elsewhere. Of course to be fair, the US trained some of those paramilitary groups now terrorizing Northern Mexico. At one time, many of them were elite Mexican law enforcement who sought our help. But make no mistake about it – Russian weapons are in the region and so is their expertise – either through criminal enterprises or a complex arms length strategy of influence.

At a recent global terrorism conference I was speaking at, a common theme arose from many of us – the interconnectedness of terrorism, crime and governments. To think that crime, terrorism, intelligence agencies or governments, their activities and actions are discrete enterprises and nary the two shall meet is foolish and erroneous. Politics makes for strange bedfellows. Given the “interesting” background of Russia’s true power – Putin – businessman, intelligence officer, law enforcement player, politician - and his interactions with a wide array of well placed as well as less than savory characters – each role players in his strategy to restore Russia to global preeminence – it is not farfetched to acknowledge the potential for overlap across the continuum from sanctioned to supported to suggested, and official to unofficial to outside the boundaries.

We’d be wise to anticipate the murky as part of their rules of engagement – which is to say ‘no rules!’ You cannot defeat a mixed martial arts (MMA) practitioner or street fighter if you follow the Marquis of Queensbury Rules. Assuming you want to counter your opponents taking the high ground, at least for Heaven’s sake recognize when your opponent won’t follow the rules! Is it any wonder the world’s best MMA is a Russian?

The leading revenue sources for terrorist organizations are drugs, weapons and human trafficking. Selling narcotics, amphetamines and marijuana, guns, explosives, anti-armor weapons, and people is BIG business. Governments and criminal enterprises exploit this. Sometimes it is difficult to separate the two. Make no mistake about it – Russia – whether through her intelligence agencies, military industrial complex of munitions dealers or the quasi arms length relationship with some criminal enterprises exported around the world – she is a player in the drug wars plaguing our country here and abroad.

Or….

“Russian Mafia” – Why is it so feared even among law enforcement? And how did it grow so quickly to a point where much of the most desirable real estate in the US is owned by these folks, including much of the Brooklyn waterfront and Miami South Beach? Three letters….K G B! Does anyone but the village idiot and his slow brother think that when the Berlin Wall fell, the KGB would disappear or head off to an easy retirement? It is estimated that almost 500,000 people were in one form or another in the employ or at least $$ recipients of the KGB. You don’t just dismiss or disband that kind of network, nor do you willingly lose such a trained group of talent, information, muscle and influence. Russia didn’t! Some went to head up criminal enterprises; others helped transform the KGB into 21st Century intelligence organizations under a different set of initials but no less talented or committed to the cause. The Russian Mob is blessed with an ample array of skilled former (?) KGB agents. Mafia or Embassy employee – what’s the difference if you are in a position to acquire information or influence events? Pragmatic, nyet? And ….here!

Or….

“Cyber Threats” - Russia has one of the most advanced cyber capabilities in the world. Timing a cyber invasion with a tank invasion, through computer magic Russians effectively shut down much of the infrastructure in the tiny nation of Georgia – and in the process demonstrated they could have caused enormous destruction even death if they applied those cyber skills on disrupting the safety protocols of petrochemical and other industrial plants. They can do it here, too! Russia has an advanced cyber program just 90 miles from the US in Cuba. Moscow has made no secret that cyber preeminence is their goal. Their ability to manipulate the Internet is more than urban legend. Several highly placed law enforcement experts have shared with me the near daunting level of penetration Russians have succeeded in achieving in computer technology and as a cyber threat. To control cyber space is one of the most powerful tools for economic, military and global influence. From money laundering to recruiting operatives to sharing information – consider the possibilities the Internet poses for legitimate and illicit purposes - all in stealth mode!

Or

“Identity Theft” – related to cyber threats, who do you think were some of the major players in credit card thefts, identity thefts, and related criminal affairs?

Beyond the potential to manipulate financial markets, override security protocols in heavy industries which could result in explosions or other devastating outcomes, shut down web sites, steal identities or move money, the ability to control cyber space means you can create false identities and make the “cover” stories or legends far more difficult for law enforcement to unravel. A recent article discussing the Russian Spy Ring suggested it will be harder to create such enterprises with the likes of Google ® and other Internet resources. Not if you are China or Russia! Cyber – hacking, manipulation, control – has been a top priority of Russia & China for years. They learn quickly and task their resources appropriately. Do NOT underestimate their capabilities. We tend to think cyber only as industrial espionage or identity theft. Think false identities, military applications, public safety, medical records, and controls over heavy industry, including research labs and nuclear procedures and functions…. The list goes on and on. And it has been done.

Or….

“Counterfeit Products” – WhileChinaretains top spot as producers of tainted products, poisoned products and counterfeit products, Russia is not on the sidelines in this lucrative trade. While many of these pose more inconvenience than injury, the human toll and impact on businesses by such products cannot be dismissed.

Or …

“Human Trafficking” – Katya is not just a name; it is a price ($100) for a ‘visit’ from a woman. The number of children run through sex shops, so called “gentlemen’s clubs” to the downright bought and sold in and through this country is staggering. Human trafficking along with the kidnap and ransom trade remain among the top five revenue sources for criminal enterprises worldwide, and the US is not immune to the tentacles of such trafficking; much of which at the hands of Russian mafia.

Or…

“Energy Policy” or pain at the pump! Under the mire of BP’s drilling fiasco, the notion of drilling and tapping into our petroleum reserves just got quashed, at least in the short term. All to the benefit of OPEC includingRussiaand Venezuela. You often hear people quip about gas stations being owned by terrorists’ fronts, especially in the aftermath of 911. But the reality – between CITGO (Venezuela) & Lukoil (Russia) our local gas policy and $$$ are also under the influence of foreign entities. Now that’s nothing new – Shell (Netherlands), BP (UK) have been providing drivers with fuel for years – but those nations are not exactly serious competitors or adversaries. Nor do they, like Russia, hold many nations hostage with their energy policies (thinkEastern Europethese last few winters) or own much of our financial instruments or supply Hamas and Hezbollah (through intermediaries) weapons and training or provide safe haven in our backyard (Venezuela w/Russian help).

"All war is based on deception" Sun Tzu, The Art Of War

Putin must love American politics. What you see is what you get. He on the other hand is a master of the misdirection. While he was talking to then President Bush about warming relations, Putin invades a sovereign nation – Georgia. While talking to our current president about shared goals and addressing the global terrorist threat, Medvedev continues to aid Iran with weapons, technology, expertise, funding and growing energy partnerships. Are we the only ones who missed the memo? China, Russia – their own domestic economic challenges notwithstanding, are eating our lunch in many ways and many places. In upcoming articles we’ll discuss the links between Russia and global threats. The world is not a safer place because Mother Russia is approaching super power status. The developing world may like having someone to counter US influence, but that is the politics of jealousy clouding judgment. There are those who suggest Russia is a paper tiger – a decaying infrastructure, corruption, yada yada yada – the same bromides about an old grey Russia. Guess again. While Russia clearly has infrastructure problems (so do we – the US could NOT fight WWII today because we’d have a hard time building things!!!), she is still one of the leading energy nations in the world. That isn’t merely existential but a cold, reality. And as I’ve written in prior articles, energy is influence. Especially in a cold, East Europe winter! Russia is a weapons producing nation. Russia is a military training nation – exporting expertise. Russia is blessed with natural resources.

And she is a nuclear nation who has manipulated the most recent treaty to her best advantage. Cliff note version – Russia like the US can only have so many nukes; she can’t afford to dismantle the old ones (well she could but then that would impact doing all the other activities abroad) and build the hot new designs with which to upgrade her arsenal – the treaty allows for others (Uncle Sam) to help with the cost of dismantling old, dangerous warheads…i.e. we pick up part of the tab. Russia meets the cap number on warheads – that number now made up of brand spanking new ones with advanced capabilities, and we help pay for the cleanup of old ones! Wow! I wish we had thought of that. Sometimes crying poormouth really pays off! Russian works a similar scam with the US on polonium.

Putin once described the collapse of the Soviet Union as the greatest tragedy of the 20th century - one he was determined to reverse. Using energy hegemony Putin has already commenced on an impressive rearmament program. The military is a visible projection of power and influence – any doubt about his resolve, think Georgia or Chechnya. Several accounts confirm that the Russian military has been considering commissioning 70 strategic missiles over the next three years – a significant increase in the production rate of their land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

Russia is not the Boogie Man. She holds the promise of being a great nation among nations - but that will take generations of change. The immediate problem – we as a body politic know very little about the impact of and our dependency upon Russia and other nations nor do we understand the psyche of any competitor nation. Our nation is up for sale, in debt, our military overstretched and under-supported, our foreign policy an example of crisis management or pay as we go, our domestic policy especially in terms of generating or protecting industries is uninspiring, a stock market that makes Las Vegas look like amateurs in the wagering world, and global alliances shaky. Our approach to homeland security is plummeting into the abyss known as 9 11 amnesia and our resolve to address a growing fifth column in the US is wavering. We are a mono-lingual nation; very few speak Russian, let alone Arabic, Chinese, Farsi or Hindi – the languages of our largest rivals, partners, threats and allies.

“Those who ignore history are condemned to repeat it.”
George Santayana

Whoever said life happens when you aren’t paying attention was absolutely correct. Consider the rise of Russia – while the US is mired in numerous domestic and global challenges, our friends in Moscow, most specifically Putin, have been strategizing how to bring Mother Russia back to her former vaunted self on the world stage. And the biggest mistake we can make is to consider Russia as the bumbling former evil empire – long on military but short on finesse and led by oafish party hacks.

As of this writing Russia is a major player in South America and Cuba, a growing player in Africa as well as Indonesia and the Pacific Rim, a significant shareholder in the USA (between China and Russia they own a bunch of our financial instruments), patron or patriarch in Iran and the Middle East, power broker in parts of Europe, Eurasia and most masterful of all feats if they can pull it off – being wooed as partner if not member of NATO by NATO! Ever feel like you are in the looking glass? You have to admit Russia through Vladimir Putin, has accomplished a fair amount since the dismantling of the USSR – an event he likens to one of the worst disasters in history and something he has sworn to reverse. He sounds like a man on a mission – we would be well not to underestimate him, albeit we are a bit late on the uptake and it will require a lot of savvy on the US and West to counter him. It’s not looking good right now for the good guys.

The recent “revelation” that there are Russian spies in our midst is tragic-comedy. It should be a profound grasp of the obvious we have been infiltrated all along; this is not front page news as a reinstitution of an old threat. The threat never left. The only benefit of this renewed interest in global affairs as they affect domestic security is the notion we might be able to broaden this with an honest discussion that we have lots of bad guys in our midst – especially terrorist cells that have, like cancers, learned to adapt, develop resistance to current capture methodologies and are growing in numbers – from leaders who, like the Russians who were planted some 20 or more years ago, designed to head up functional groups, to recruits, followers, devotees and supporters. MIT as the old joke goes has trained ½ the world’s techno terrorists. Whether through the front door or surreptitiously across the borders, operatives from adversary nations, terrorist groups or competitor industries ply their trade in the US.

The point is straightforward – the affairs of our daily lives continue to be influenced by global events. We are not insulated from these realities. The problem – we have allowed too many Trojan horses through the gates, and missed the assault on our industries, allowed an erosion of our employment base, ceded much of our foreign policy and ignored, even enabled the threats both domestic and international to the US and our allies that Russia poses.

The US is still a great power and great threat – otherwise why would Russia and so many others be here spying on us? It is in a perverse sort of way a compliment to our strength. Having foot soldiers on our shore enables a street level view of who we are as a people, and how to tap into our best and worst practices. We’re an open and mobile society – transient in many regions. And therein rest some of the problems. Easy to blend in, easy maneuvering. We’re also a country made up of people – the good, the bad and the mercenary. In the 1980’s – a ranking KGB officer was once asked what is an American worth to you? Answer…”about $25,000.” The cost to buy one of our citizens. Times have changed but as Dad once cautioned….Follow the dollar – especially given the ever growing group of disaffected, bankrupt and overstretched Americans. The dollar figure may go up, but it is an old game to purchase the services of citizens. We, too, exploit this game overseas.

Now what?

As a security professional my job is simple (but not easy) – to protect people, facilities and function. The ultimate security professional in the US is the president. There is danger in our midst. Will we be conquered by inaction, inattention, political correctness, the folly of misbelief or wishful thinking and misplaced trust? Nations die from within.

Russia’s growing influence here in the US, our back yard among Caribbean and South American nations, in the Middle East, Europe and elsewhere is not ideal. To think it is beneficial is illusory. Russia uses the hope, the notion that somehow Moscow will become our buddy, and agent of influence in world affairs so that peace, harmony and shared objectives will become today’s reality…it is a hope that we wear on our sleeves and telegraph as part of our foreign policy. Russia exploits that. She exploits our domestic political situation whereby most of the elected, especially most presidents have two objectives – re-election and favorable public opinion. Putin is nary as fettered. In a closed shop, public opinion is far easier to manipulate. Besides he recognizes what most benign despots learn early on – food on the table, gas in the car, calm on the streets and national pride in the hearts. Putin accomplished this – Russia is now a player on the world stage, and the more we pander to instead of deal with or counter her, the more powerful she becomes.

It is worth repeating Team USA is the team to beat as the most successful of contemporary superpowers. In a prior article I discussed the China strategy of using soft power – economics, propaganda, the media as part of a concerted effort to undermine a superpower (us) which they are playing out brilliantly; Russia has borrowed the playbook. Sometimes the truth is painful – but we are faced with difficult realities and even more difficult choices. First to recognize “they are gunning for us” as we’d say on the basketball court! Then to look at the tools and strategies they are using and the places those strategies and tactics are being employed. First, part two – reassess what OUR strategies are? Where do we need to be as a nation? What are our vulnerabilities, strengths? Second counter our competitors’ tactics, reinforce our defenses. Third – sometimes the best defense is a good offense. Take it to their end of the court! The concept for example, of countering Russia’s pipelines in and through Eastern Europe was great, right up to the point where Russia outplayed us. But we’re on the right track! Two can play at the game, or don’t play at all! Winning is all about keeping your opponent off balance. The first time I tried a layup on my dad he drilled me in the ribs and sent me flying. “You missed the shot!” The next time I didn’t. We as a nation are playing with our guard down. Time to stop! Maybe we should make Phil Jackson head of homeland security? Maybe we should use this espionage event to reexamine if we do enough to support our own intelligence & counterintelligence apparatus in the US?

The recent arrest of Russian spies was a laudable effort by domestic law enforcement. It is not an endpoint. There are others here who have been planted far deeper and far longer – from Russia, Iran, Al Qaeda and/or its subsidiaries/franchisees, China, Pakistan and the list goes on. There is a growing element of imported criminals – taking organized crime and gangs to an entirely new level …international.. and with it forging links with government, military and paramilitary groups worldwide. There’s growing terror on the Southwestern border, there is a growing number of radical Islamists – cells and new organizational structures which we’ll discuss in future articles, with jihadist objectives, and of course the ever present legion of official and unofficial cover intelligence agents. A fifth column is not to be taken lightly.

It is time to take the headlines and use them as the backdrop for renewed national debate how to protect the homeland in a concerted effort. The preparedness axiom…”think global, act local.”

Eleven down….MANY to go! Homeland Security….Will we play offense, defense or both?