The Holger Prediction: What Is Iran's Big Surprise For The West On February 11th? : A Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz

Everyone has seen the headline over at Drudge that announces a statement from Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei that on February 11th, which is the anniversary of the Iranian islamic revolution, the Iranians will " will punch the arrogance (Western powers) on the 22nd of Bahman (February 11) in a way that will leave them stunned."

There has been plenty of conjecture as to what this "punch" will be - some think that the Iranians will conduct a nuclear weapons test, some think there will be another long range missile test and there has even been murmuring that the Iranians could launch a strike on Israel.

I've thought about this and since Khamenei has referenced only "Western powers", I wondered what would really stun the West more than a serious hit to the financial markets and since Iran is only a peon in the financial infrastructure, it dawned on me that there is one way that Iran could literally bring the world markets to a grinding halt. So, here is my prediction of what the Iranians are up to for this Thursday, February 11th:

The Iranians will block the Strait of Hormuz of all oil exports

The effect of such a blockade would be mind boggling. Over 20% of the world's oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and this means 40% of all oil that travels by sea. We would see economic markets in the U.S. and Europe crash, we would see oil futures probably quadruple in price.

So, why would the Iranians attempt such a brazen act? Well, I think the reasons are numerous but I feel the Iranians truly fear an Israeli attack on their nuclear facilities and this is a signal that if Iran is attacked, there will be repurcussions. Also, the U.S. has built up naval forces in the region and as usual, the Iranians do not like threats and usually react in a very knee jerk way. Then, if you throw in the fact that, in the current political make up of the West, there really is no hawk leader that would confront this violation ....well, the Iranians could literally get away with it.

The Iranians are smart enough to know that President Barack "ITook4MonthsToDecideOnAfghanistan" Obama would be about as quick to react as maple syrup flowing in the middle of January and of course, the nations of Britain and France are basically neutered militarily right now in regards to any response. The Iranians need some help to both avoid an Israeli strike and get some needed last components for their nuclear program and I believe this is what they see as the ultimate bargaining chip.

I know some of you may think my prediction is "over the top." But consider it for a moment and then tell me...do you REALLY believe that any country in the West will react militarily to this action from Iran? I think the Iranians are willing to weather a strongly worded denunciation of this from the United Nations and if it DOES happen, prepare for the promise of the Ayatollah to come true as the financial market reaction will indeed stun all of us.

From AFP:

Iran anniversary 'punch' will stun West: Khamenei

TEHRAN — Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Monday that Iran is set to deliver a "punch" that will stun world powers during this week's 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution.
"The Iranian nation, with its unity and God's grace, will punch the arrogance (Western powers) on the 22nd of Bahman (February 11) in a way that will leave them stunned," Khamenei, who is also Iran's commander-in-chief, told a gathering of air force personnel.
The country's top cleric was marking the occasion when Iran's air force gave its support to revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, a key event which led to the toppling of the US-backed shah on February 11, 1979.
His comments came as Iran said it would begin to produce higher enriched uranium from Tuesday, in defiance of Western powers trying to ensure the country's nuclear drive is peaceful.
This year's anniversary is expected to become a flashpoint between security forces and supporters of opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, who charge that the June re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was rigged.
Opposition supporters are expected to stage anti-government protests on Thursday when the traditional regime-sponsored marches to mark the revolution take place across the country.
Mousavi renewed his call for demonstrations on the February 11 anniversary.
Just over a week ago, he and Karroubi had implicitly called for a gathering of their supporters.
"The 22nd of Bahman is upon us, truly it should be called the day of gathering," Mousavi said on his Kaleme.org website Monday.
"I feel we have to participate while maintaining the collective spirit as well as our identity and leave an impression," Mousavi said.
"Anger and bitterness should not take our control away.
"The clerics should know that since imprisonment, beatings, and other confrontational methods are done in the name of Islam and the Islamic regime, it is hurting Islam and we all should try to stop," he added.
Anti-government protests were first triggered after the June 12 presidential election won by Ahmadinejad.
Over the past eight months, several thousand people were arrested. Some were released and others were given hefty prison terms, among them politicians, journalists and human rights activists.
Two protesters were tried, convicted and hanged in the aftermath of the election.
Khamenei told the air force personnel the "most important aim of the sedition after the election was to create a rift within the Iranian nation, but it was unable to do so and our nation's unity remained a thorn in its eyes."