Is Pakistan Pulling The Wool Over Our Eyes On Success Of Swat Operation?

Let's face it - there are more conflicting reports coming in each day about the success or failure of the Pakistani military's operations in the Swat Valley than you can shake a stick at - we literally have a Pakistani official claiming 700 Taliban dead, the Pakistani military saying 300 Taliban have bit it and some outside observers saying it isn't even close to those estimates. At this article from The Long War Journal you will see what some American officials are saying about how the Pakistani government is blowing smoke on the whole operation. Here's a few excerpts:

US military and intelligence officials are expressing skepticism about Pakistani claims of high Taliban casualties as the fighting spreads in the volatile northwest.
The Pakistani military's daily reports of hundreds of Taliban fighters killed in the districts of Swat, Shangla, Dir, and Buner are "wildly exaggerated," a senior US intelligence official who is closely watching the operations in Pakistan told The Long War Journal.
Rehman Malik, Pakistan's Interior Minister, claimed that more than 700 Taliban fighters were killed in the last four days in Swat alone, Dawn reported. But a US intelligence official described Malik's claim as "fantastic."
"Malik's numbers are even more fantastic than those given by the Pakistani military, which has claimed more than 300 Taliban fighters were killed since late last week," a US intelligence official told The Long War Journal. "Clearly they [the Pakistani security establishment] want us to believe they're having fantastic success against the Taliban."
"The numbers issued by the military are wildly exaggerated," a military intelligence official said, noting that the military is over-relying on air and artillery strikes instead of engaging the Taliban. "This is like a bad movie we've all seen before. The Pakistani military levels large areas, claims success, and thinks we'll be conned into believing it if they pump up the Taliban body counts."

In one other report there is a statement by a Pakistani official that things are going so well for the military that he expects a successful end of the operation soon - now, if that isn't a sign of crapola, I've never seen one. Let's face the facts...you simply do not lob a bunch of artillery shells into a number of areas and destroy the Taliban. You do not rout the Taliban by sending in a few waves of helicopter gunships. This has been documented by NATO and U.S. efforts in Afghanistan - the Taliban react to offensives by disbanding...they scatter....they don't give a shit about simply fading into the landscape and mountains and wait another day for their chance to simply gain back any ground that has been lost.

At the same time, I do believe there has been some morale losses for the Taliban - they have been fairly quiet over the last week and usually, they are flapping their gums daily. I would say that we've probably seen Taliban losses closer to 200 in the past week but that the actual number of Taliban in the Swat Valley have been widely exaggerated - I think the neighboring districts and provinces hold many, many more of them and once the military ends the operations, we will see the gradual flow of Taliban return - it always works that way and what the Pakistani government will have to admit one of these days is simply that they have a cancer inside its borders that will not go away with a shot or two of radiation...it will be many years before this cancer will be excised, if ever.

Pakistani claims of high Taliban casualties 'wildly exaggerated' - US officials

US military and intelligence officials are expressing skepticism about Pakistani claims of high Taliban casualties as the fighting spreads in the volatile northwest.
The Pakistani military's daily reports of hundreds of Taliban fighters killed in the districts of Swat, Shangla, Dir, and Buner are "wildly exaggerated," a senior US intelligence official who is closely watching the operations in Pakistan told The Long War Journal.
Rehman Malik, Pakistan's Interior Minister, claimed that more than 700 Taliban fighters were killed in the last four days in Swat alone, Dawn reported. But a US intelligence official described Malik's claim as "fantastic."
"Malik's numbers are even more fantastic than those given by the Pakistani military, which has claimed more than 300 Taliban fighters were killed since late last week," a US intelligence official told The Long War Journal. "Clearly they [the Pakistani security establishment] want us to believe they're having fantastic success against the Taliban."
"The numbers issued by the military are wildly exaggerated," a military intelligence official said, noting that the military is over-relying on air and artillery strikes instead of engaging the Taliban. "This is like a bad movie we've all seen before. The Pakistani military levels large areas, claims success, and thinks we'll be conned into believing it if they pump up the Taliban body counts."
The military said more than 15,000 troops, including units from the paramilitary Frontier Corps, are engaged against an estimated 5,000 to 7,000 Taliban fighters in Swat. Malik's numbers would indicate that the Taliban have suffered 10 percent killed and likely another 20 to 30 percent wounded.
The status of the fight in Swat casts doubts on the Pakistani military's claims on Taliban casualties. "The Taliban are still holding firm in Swat, the military has largely been kept at bay," a US military officer said. "If they've suffered such high casualties, I wouldn't expect this."
Meanwhile, the military continues its heay-handed approach to counterinsurgency in the northwest. Multiple reports from the region indicate the Army is shelling villages indiscriminately without allowing civilians to flee the area and with little or no intelligence on the Taliban presence in the region.
As the fighting continues in Swat and neighboring Dir and Buner, the Taliban have expanded their operations into the tribal areas and in neighboring districts. Large Taliban forces, operating at the company and battalion level, have conducted attacks on military bases and convoys in Mohmand and South Waziristan, and have been interdicting military convoys in Mardan and Malakand.
"The military's engagements in Mohmand and South Waziristan have been defensive in nature," the military officer said. "They're responding to Taliban attacks, not taking the fight to them."
The Taliban attacks outside of the Swat theater continue. Today, a Taliban suicide bomber killed 13 Pakistanis after ramming a car packed with explosives into a Frontier Corps checkpoint in Darra Adam Khel.