Pakistani Experts Tell Us: How To Catch Osama bin Laden

This really is a fascinating article over at Foreign Policy where five Pakistani experts tell how they would go about catching the elusive Osama bin Laden - I really suggest that you read the whole article. I'm going to just excerpt some of the more interesting angles from all five experts:

First:

Penetrate his network through double agents—locals and Arabs who could slowly work their way into al Qaeda’s logistics chain. Over time, they could help map his activities and likely movements. Bin Laden cannot move easily without a sizable group of followers, so watch for the double-cab pickups that traverse the mountainous, wooded terrain of the northern Hindu Kush, his most likely hide-out. Look in Dir and Chitral districts, plus the contiguous Afghan provinces across the border. Bin Laden is not likely to settle in the more open, vegetation-free zone further south. Inventory the hujras or meeting houses that have been hired by foreigners through local Taliban and other sympathizers (bribes will get you everywhere in the tribal areas, so use cash to find out what you need to know).

Second:

Working through the tribes is the best approach. Bin Laden is most likely surrounded by several rings of security personnel who are extremely loyal, heavily armed, and constantly on the move. By relying on human intelligence supplemented by technical intelligence, it should be possible to identify his general location. Gathering information from the people will not be easy, however, as they fear reprisal from the militants. The Taliban and al Qaeda’s second- and third-tier leadership under detention is another valuable source of intelligence. Capturing pro al-Qaeda warlords can help, as they have considerable knowledge about the location and movement of top leaders.

Third:

To earn the Pashtuns’ goodwill and support, the United States and its allies will need to detach them from the Taliban and, in turn, detach the Taliban from al Qaeda. Lumping them together allows them to unite to fight a common enemy. But the Taliban and al Qaeda are different entities with separate agendas and, therefore, must be dealt with differently. Once that is done, bin Laden and other foreigners will find it hard to claim local support and seek sanctuary among the Pashtuns.
How can the United States win them over? One major source of Pashtun rage is the insecurity and killings in their areas, which prevent new jobs and development. Yet the United States has promised just $750 million over five years for Pakistan’s tribal areas, peanuts compared with what it is spending in Afghanistan. Substantial, targeted development funds by the United States and its allies are needed to bring the tribal areas up to par with the rest of Pakistan.

Fourth:

Pakistan’s central predicament is not bin Laden per se, but the utter failure of former President Pervez Musharraf and the present leadership to mobilize the country against terrorism. Most Pakistanis think that their government’s involvement in the war on terror does not serve the national interest, and anti-U.S. sentiments go far beyond Islamic circles. Unilateral strikes will only fan those flames.

Fifth:

A people’s resistance is developing against atrocities targeting Shiites, massacres of tribal elders, destruction of girls’ schools and colleges, and the virtual elimination of revenues from areas dependent on tourism.
These gains need to be followed up. The cesspool in which extremism thrives must be drained. The Pakistani state must firmly enforce its writ and protect ordinary tribal folk who resist religious extremism. It will need to put more Pakistani boots on the ground in FATA, address the causes of human misery in these poverty-stricken and lawless no-man’s lands, and cleanse intelligence agencies of pro-Taliban and al Qaeda elements. It may be a tall order, but it is immensely more important than getting bin Laden’s head.