According to a report out of TIME Magazine, most of the Lebanese people are bracing for another Israeli-Hezbollah war and in fact, some are setting the date for the onset as April 6, 2008. This appears in the article:
And that last sentence is pretty solid - there IS no evidence of an Israeli invasion although I would be ALL for it. But Israel has to be careful. Hezbollah has rearmed since the last war and in fact, I think Hezbollah has some serious new surprises up its sleeves - my guess is they have weapons more sophisticated than ever before. Which, if there is a war, Israel must adapt. The days of Israeli tanks rolling in are over. If I were an Israeli advisor, my plan would be for specific pinpoint attacks on Hezbollah leadership - not just in Lebanon but also in Syria. I would make it plain that the leadership will die. One thing I have noticed about these terrorist groups is that their leadership, when it gets skiddish, puts an immediate hold on activities - we've seen it countless times with Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
The other issue that Israel must confront is Hezbollah's tendency to mingle in with the populace in southern Beirut and other areas. The Israelis need to either find a pinpointing air assault to take out Hezbollah movements as opposed to their strongholds or the Israelis need to draw Hezbollah out of those urban areas out into the open. Now, that might mean a highly risky "baiting" of Hezbollah but one that might work.
The Time article has a good deal of Hezbollah supported paranoia in it, but the fact of the matter is that Hezbollah has been baiting Israel for months and at the same time, Israel has been finding more and more evidence of Hezbollah efforts to inflict damage. The time just might be right for Israel to make a move but it has to be the right move.
What will replace it, nearly everyone in Beirut speculated to me, is the resumption of the Hizballah-Israel war that ravaged Lebanon in the summer of 2006. Some Lebanese even have a precise date for it: April 6 — the day Israel's biggest emergency drill ever starts, when they believe the Israeli Defense Forces juggernaut will roll across the border to finish the job they should have during the 34-day conflict. Although, mind you, there's not a thread of evidence that the Israelis are really going to invade.
And that last sentence is pretty solid - there IS no evidence of an Israeli invasion although I would be ALL for it. But Israel has to be careful. Hezbollah has rearmed since the last war and in fact, I think Hezbollah has some serious new surprises up its sleeves - my guess is they have weapons more sophisticated than ever before. Which, if there is a war, Israel must adapt. The days of Israeli tanks rolling in are over. If I were an Israeli advisor, my plan would be for specific pinpoint attacks on Hezbollah leadership - not just in Lebanon but also in Syria. I would make it plain that the leadership will die. One thing I have noticed about these terrorist groups is that their leadership, when it gets skiddish, puts an immediate hold on activities - we've seen it countless times with Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
The other issue that Israel must confront is Hezbollah's tendency to mingle in with the populace in southern Beirut and other areas. The Israelis need to either find a pinpointing air assault to take out Hezbollah movements as opposed to their strongholds or the Israelis need to draw Hezbollah out of those urban areas out into the open. Now, that might mean a highly risky "baiting" of Hezbollah but one that might work.
The Time article has a good deal of Hezbollah supported paranoia in it, but the fact of the matter is that Hezbollah has been baiting Israel for months and at the same time, Israel has been finding more and more evidence of Hezbollah efforts to inflict damage. The time just might be right for Israel to make a move but it has to be the right move.
Bracing for a New Hizballah-Israel War
Everyone I met in Beirut confirmed that Hizballah is locked and loaded for the next war. They didn't need any additional proof, but when the USS Cole showed up off the coast of Lebanon it was all the more proof that the United States and Israel were coming to get them.
I experienced the siege mentality firsthand when I passed by Hizballah's "media office" in Beirut's southern suburbs to see if I could photograph the grave of its most recent "martyr,"Imad Mughniyah — the Hizballah military commander assassinated in Damascus on February 12. It shouldn't have been a big deal: Mughniyah's pictures line the road from the airport into town. But the lady who ran the office looked at us as if we personally had detonated the car bomb that killed him.
Just as we were about to be shown to the door, I made one last plea, something about Mughniyah being Hizballah's field general, and surely there shouldn't be a problem. "There are thousands more like him," she said, turning her laser eyes on me as if to say, don't even think that one death made a difference to Hizballah's Islamic Resistance.
Ironically, for anyone who doesn't spend his day following Lebanese politics, an Israeli invasion is exactly what Hizballah wants. A war with Israel would keep Hizballah from losing its resistance mantle, and prevent it from getting caught up in what one of Hizballah's leader Hassan Nasrallah's political interlocutors told me would be Hizballah's worst nightmare — a civil war. A civil war would draw Hizballah into a fight with the Christians and the Sunnis; it would be just another faction with its own parochial interests, the end of Hizballah's special place in Lebanese society.
Whether Hizballah takes its revenge for Mughniyah or not, the average Lebanese is preparing for the worst. The price of a Kalashnikov in the thriving black market has nearly tripled in recent weeks to $1,200.
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