Is Ahmadinejad A Slam Dunk For Re-Election?

The Iranian presidential election is less than six months away and there really is a good article here at McClatchy that details the opposition efforts against an Ahmadinejad re-election. It appears that the main contender to unseat Ahmadinejad is the former president, Mohammad Khatami. Here's some of the details from the article:

However, this is Iran, where things are never simple. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may be the subject of incessant grumbling and the butt of jokes zinging from cell phone to cell phone via text message. Yet with presidential elections six months away, he's still the man to beat.

Khatami, who served two terms as president from 1997 to 2005, has emerged as the opposition's best hope. An intense, behind-the-scenes campaign is under way to persuade him to run, according to Iranian political figures and analysts.
"Khatami looks like a savior to the people right now," said one analyst who requested anonymity because he feared retribution.

"The will of Ayatollah Khamenei is going to be a huge factor in determining who is Iran's next president," said Karim Sadjadpour, an associate at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Though Khamenei publicly defends Ahmadinejad, he may well decide that the costs of having him serve a second term outweigh the benefits."

The key to this election seems to be whether Khatami will actually decide to run for the office. I'd say it's pretty clear that if he does not, the world will be saddled again with Ahmadinejad. At the same time, if Khatami does run, we could see the Ayatollah Khamenei put a kibash on that run just because, in my view, Khamenei doesn't want to see Iran viewed as changing positions in the world right now.

However, if oil prices continue to spiral downward over the next six months, we could literally see Iran's economy crumble even further and as is the case in most countries, peoples' bellies and pocket books can do amazing things in any election. The Ayatollah and the mullahs might rule Iran with an iron fist but in the end, they are no match for a united civilian front. But even if Ahmadinejad were to be upset in the election, I doubt we would see anything like an about face on the nuclear position of Iran or the support given to Hamas and Hezbollah.

Iran's unpopular president is favored to win re-election

TEHRAN, Iran — In many other countries it would be a slam-dunk for the opposition: The president is increasingly unpopular, his economic policies are blamed for 30 percent annual inflation and his foreign policy has left the country more isolated than at any time in recent memory.
However, this is Iran, where things are never simple. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may be the subject of incessant grumbling and the butt of jokes zinging from cell phone to cell phone via text message. Yet with presidential elections six months away, he's still the man to beat.
The elections will be of intense interest to President-elect Barack Obama. Iran's alleged nuclear-weapons program, support for terrorist groups and influence in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf, are likely to make the Islamic Republic one of his main foreign policy challenges. Some observers have speculated that Obama may wait until after June before offering direct negotiations with Iran, in hopes that Ahmadinejad will be replaced by a more moderate figure.
Ahmadinejad's opponents, mostly reformers and some traditional conservatives, are struggling to capitalize on the president's woes and heal their own internal divisions.
"We're not sure we're going to have a consensus candidate," acknowledged Mostafa Tajzadeh, a deputy interior minister under former President Mohammad Khatami.
Tajzadeh spoke in an interview in the offices of a magazine published by the Islamic Iran Participation Front, a reformist party associated with Khatami. Days earlier, criticism of Ahmadinejad's economic policies dominated the party's annual meeting in Tehran.
Khatami, who served two terms as president from 1997 to 2005, has emerged as the opposition's best hope. An intense, behind-the-scenes campaign is under way to persuade him to run, according to Iranian political figures and analysts.
"Khatami looks like a savior to the people right now," said one analyst who requested anonymity because he feared retribution.
"We were critical of Khatami before," the analyst said, reflecting widespread disillusionment with the former president's failure to carry out reforms opposed by the country's conservative Shiite Muslim religious establishment. "Now we pray he returns."

"I have no doubt ... that 70 percent of seminarians and clerics in Qom do not approve (of) and back Ahmadinejad," said one Iranian with close ties to senior religious figures. He, too, spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution.
All of which has reformists pining for a unity candidate who can carry them to victory and begin tackling Iran's deep economic and social problems. To them, Khatami looks like the best bet.
"He's under pressure. Everybody's asking him to run," said Tajzadeh, of the pro-Khatami party. "If you would have asked me two or three months ago, I would have said (the chances of Khatami's running are) 20 percent. Now it's 50 percent and increasing."
Others aren't so sure.
Mohammad Kazam Anbarloui, the editor of the conservative Resalat daily newspaper, predicted that Ahmadinejad would win.
Iran's reformists, he said, "have big differences that they have not been able so far to resolve."