tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1065080297476076227.post3450447605153432435..comments2024-02-02T08:20:16.068-08:00Comments on Holger Awakens: Russian Operations In Chechnya Kill 11 Muslim Terrorists Including 2 Islamic Caucasus Emirate LeadersHolger Awakenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14728123335596054395noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1065080297476076227.post-29959758115024450762013-01-26T11:13:55.958-08:002013-01-26T11:13:55.958-08:00But I would doubt that after Syria, an influx of b...But I would doubt that after Syria, an influx of battle hardened Chechens coming back and stoking up the flames. Those guys were already battle hardened, and they presumably only left in 2011-2012. In the past 18-24 months, the Insurgency in the North Caucasus has been considerably blunted with the killing of several high ranking Emirs, particularly in the Spring of 2011, with the likes of Supyan Abdullayev Deputy Emir and Muhannad Emir of Arab fighters being killed. Don't forget that in 2010 Emir Magas the Military Emir of the Caucasus Emirate was captured alive. A rare feat, as most of them put up a strong fight when cornered and usually die. Last year another senior Emir was captured, an Arab one, making it even more rare.<br /><br />But the killing of the Gakayev brothers is quite a blow to the insurgency. Usually in the past 3 years or so we've seen Junior Emirs in Dagestan, Ingushetia and Kabardino Balkaria being killed. While the conflict seems to have spread to these repsective provinces, the epicenter of the insurgency is where it originated, in Chechnya. That's where all the senior leaders reside, most likely Doku Umarov, Tarkhan Gaziyev, Aslambek Vadalov and Aslan Byutukayev. These are the most battle hardened Emirs. They've survived since the First War. And they give out orders from Chechnya to the Junior Emirs in the surrounding areas.<br /><br />Why pick Chechnya as a base of operations? Apart from the historical connection to the insurgency? Terrain! Dagestan where it seems the insurgency is the most fiercest has flatland terrain with little tree cover and many urban areas. Hence why many Dagestan based Emirs die in urban environments usually cornered in some building. Ingushetia is very small and urbanized as well with some forest cover in the south. Though with the capture of Emir Magas who was also the Emir of Ingushetia the insurgency there has never really recovered from that set back. And Kabardino Balkaria is the most urbanized of the republics. So that leaves only Chechnya as a viable source of good geographical cover. It's southern regions are heavily forested and mountainous. That's where the Insurgent HQ is located. The Gakayev's are arguably the highest ranking Emirs killed since Shamil Basayev. And the fact that the Russians new where to hunt them shows they've got some good intel on their hands. This wasn't some accidental meet up of patrols in the woods. The Gakayev's were surrounded by a determined force that knew who they were chasing and where to look for them.<br /><br />Hopefully they will get new leads on the 4 last remaining Senior Emirs. The FSB seems to be in a hurry now. Sochi 2014 is only a year away. 2013 could finally be the year where Doku Umarov is brought to justice. But that will not matter much operationally if Vadalov, Gaziyev, and Byutukayev are not eliminated as well. Should that happen the Emirs in the surrounding republics will not be able to operate and probably makes mistakes out of panic that could lead to their own downfall.<br /><br />We'll just have to wait and see. This spring-autumn fighting season could be more interesting than 2011.<br /><br /><br /><br />Hal Bregg Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com